VPBankS Forecasts Q3 2026 Profit Surge: Real Estate Up 213.8%, Led by VHM

Overview

VPBank Securities (VPBankS) forecasts sharp Q3 2026 profit divergence across Vietnamese sectors, with residential and commercial real estate after-tax profit rising 213.8% year on year to VND 21,134 billion, led by Vinhomes (VHM) on HOSE. Banking profit is projected at VND 67,699 billion, up 17.7%, with VPB, TCB and MBB cited among the large banks supported by credit growth and lower provisioning. Construction and securities are the only sectors forecast to contract.

Key Facts

• Residential and commercial real estate after-tax profit forecast at VND 21,134 billion, up 213.8% year on year, driven by VHM revenue recognition at Sài Gòn Park and Global Gate Hạ Long.
• Oil and gas profit forecast at VND 13,183 billion, up 147.5%, on high oil and refined product prices and stronger domestic upstream activity.
• Retail profit forecast at VND 4,322 billion, up 94.9%, on higher average selling prices for IT products and replacement demand.
• Logistics profit forecast at VND 2,051 billion, up 67.5%, supported by freight rates, cargo volumes and port service pricing.
• Banking profit forecast at VND 67,699 billion, up 17.7%, with VPB, TCB and MBB supported by credit growth, stable or improving NIM and lower provision costs.
• Construction profit forecast at VND 157 billion, down 95.2%, on gross margin compression and a high base from prior-year one-off financial gains.
• Securities profit forecast at VND 3,175 billion, down 10.2%, on a high Q3 2025 base and pressure on brokerage income.

What Happened

In a newly released report, VPBank Securities (VPBankS) projected that Q3 2026 earnings across Vietnamese sectors will diverge markedly. The brokerage’s headline call is residential and commercial real estate, where after-tax profit is expected to reach VND 21,134 billion, a 213.8% increase from the same period last year. VPBankS attributes the bulk of that growth to Vinhomes (VHM), citing revenue recognition from projects handed over during the quarter, including large-scale transactions at Sài Gòn Park and Global Gate Hạ Long.

The report also flags oil and gas, retail and logistics as strong performers, while construction and securities are forecast to decline. On banking, VPBankS expects after-tax profit of VND 67,699 billion, up 17.7%, with dispersion across the sector; it names VPB, TCB and MBB as large banks supported by credit growth, stable or improving net interest margins and reduced provision expenses. The report does not disclose the specific provisioning assumptions or the transaction values behind the VHM project handovers.

Market Context

On 8 October 2026, VHM closed at VND 66, down 2.21% on volume of 6.85 million shares on HOSE, a softer session than the banking names in the report: VPB closed at VND 23, up 0.21%, while TCB fell 0.77% to VND 32 and MBB fell 0.79% to VND 19. The forecast lands as Vietnamese equities continue to trade on sector rotation, with real estate and banking among the largest index weights and construction and securities sensitive to the prior year’s elevated base.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the VPBankS report frames VHM’s earnings recovery as a handover-cycle story rather than a broad property re-rating: the 213.8% sector growth is concentrated in a small number of large projects, so the durability of the forecast depends on continued delivery at Sài Gòn Park and Global Gate Hạ Long and on absorption of remaining inventory. The banking forecast is more structural, with VPB, TCB and MBB positioned to benefit from credit expansion and lower credit costs, though the 17.7% growth rate implies the sector’s earnings upgrade cycle is maturing. The construction and securities declines highlight where margin pressure and base effects are working against the market’s broader profit trend.

What to Watch

• VHM’s Q3 2026 earnings release and confirmation of revenue recognition at Sài Gòn Park and Global Gate Hạ Long.
• Q3 2026 results from VPB, TCB and MBB, particularly net interest margin and provision expense lines.
• Any revision to VPBankS sector forecasts or additional broker estimates for Q3 2026.
• Construction and securities sector results to test the forecast 95.2% and 10.2% declines.
• Domestic credit growth and State Bank of Vietnam policy signals affecting bank NIM assumptions.