VHM Leads VND 4,830B Foreign Selloff on HOSE Despite FTSE Upgrade

Overview

Foreign investors net sold VND 4,830 billion on HOSE in September 2026, nearly three times August’s VND 1,644 billion, concentrated in real estate and banking names. Vinhomes (VHM), Vingroup (VIC) and VPBank (VPB) absorbed the heaviest outflows, even as Vietnam’s FTSE secondary emerging market upgrade took effect on September 21. Analysts at Rồng Việt Securities expect external risks and a higher-for-longer global rate path to keep foreign flows cautious into the fourth quarter.

Key Facts

• Foreign investors net sold VND 4,830 billion on HOSE in September 2026, versus VND 1,644 billion in August.
• Selling occurred in 13 of 20 sessions; the strongest net-buy session was September 18 at +VND 1,255 billion, tied to FTSE-tracking ETF rebalancing.
• Between September 21 and 30, foreign net selling reached roughly VND 4,447 billion, over 90% of the full-month total.
• Sector outflows: Real Estate -VND 4,619 billion, Banking -VND 2,259 billion, Financial Services -VND 1,326 billion.
• Sector inflows: Food and Beverage +VND 1,530 billion, Information Technology +VND 860 billion, Oil and Gas +VND 756 billion.
• Top net sells: VHM -VND 2,408 billion, VIC -VND 1,248 billion, VPB -VND 1,133 billion. Top net buys: FPT +VND 863 billion, BSR +VND 748 billion, MCH +VND 726 billion, SBT +VND 724 billion.
• VN-Index closed September 30 at 1,768.62, down 3.5% month-on-month and 0.9% year-to-date, after peaking at 1,853.08 on September 4.

What Happened

HOSE average matching value fell to VND 13,240 billion per session in September, down 6.4% from August and the lowest in 12 months. The single explosive session was September 18 at VND 22,030 billion, driven by FTSE-tracking ETFs restructuring portfolios ahead of Vietnam’s formal upgrade to secondary emerging market status on September 21. That upgrade, widely anticipated, failed to reverse the foreign selling trend.

According to the article, the selling pressure intensified immediately after the upgrade took effect, coinciding with renewed concerns over surging US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield exceeded 5.2%, and reached 5.29% after the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years to a 3.75%-4% range, the highest since 2007. Rồng Việt Securities attributes the move mainly to expectations the Fed will hold rates high on a resilient US economy, rather than inflation or fiscal-risk fears, and warns that the “higher-for-longer” scenario is gaining traction as global capital rotates toward safe assets.

Market Context

Vinhomes trades on HOSE and closed at VND 68 on October 7, down 1.01% on volume of 226,300 shares, extending weakness after leading September’s foreign outflows. Vingroup closed at VND 231 (-0.34%) and VPBank at VND 23 (-0.65%), while FPT, a net-buy target, closed at VND 60,400 on October 6. The VN-Index’s 3.5% September decline and 12-month-low liquidity reflect a market caught between a structural index upgrade and a global rate environment that continues to pull capital toward US assets.

Strategic Significance

The FTSE upgrade changes Vietnam’s index classification, but it does not change the marginal buyer’s cost of capital. With US 10-year yields above 5.2%, emerging market allocations face direct competition from risk-free dollar assets, and passive FTSE flows are a one-time rebalancing event rather than a recurring bid. The September data shows the split clearly: foreign money exited rate-sensitive, leveraged real estate and bank balance sheets (VHM, VIC, VPB) while adding to IT, food and beverage, and energy names (FPT, MCH, SBT, BSR). For long-term holders of VHM, the thesis now rests on domestic absorption of foreign supply, earnings delivery, and whether the upgrade attracts active discretionary capital once the global rate cycle peaks.

What to Watch

• October foreign flow data on HOSE, particularly whether post-upgrade selling in VHM, VIC and VPB decelerates.
• US 10-year Treasury yield and Fed policy signals; a sustained move below 5% would ease pressure on emerging market allocations.
• FTSE-related active fund mandates and any new ETF launches tracking the upgraded Vietnam classification.
• VHM and VIC third-quarter 2026 earnings and any disclosure on foreign-room or share buyback activity.
• HOSE liquidity trend; a return above the 12-month average would signal domestic buyers absorbing foreign supply.