VHM Q3 2026 Profit Forecast Up 312% as Real Estate Earnings Diverge
This Aveluro analysis covers VHM (Vinhomes) on HOSE in the Real Estate sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with mixed sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Source coverage came from VnEconomy - Chứng khoán, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
MBS forecasts sharply divergent Q3 2026 earnings for Vietnamese real estate developers, with Vinhomes (VHM, HOSE) expected to post net profit of VND 17,251 billion, up 312% year on year, while DXG, KDH and NLG face pressure from high interest rates and slowing liquidity. The brokerage attributes VHM’s outsized growth to sales at the Global Gate Hạ Long and Sài Gòn Park projects, and expects VRE to maintain modest growth. The report underscores a widening gap between developers with large, actively selling projects and those reliant on deliveries from older launches.
Key Facts
- MBS forecasts VHM Q3 2026 net profit at VND 17,251 billion, up 312% year on year.
- VHM’s 9M 2026 net profit is projected at roughly VND 65,000 billion, exceeding its full-year plan.
- Global Gate Hạ Long and Sài Gòn Park have accumulated nearly VND 20,000 billion in sales since the prior quarter, contributing about 15% and 18% respectively.
- VHM is expected to record VND 40,000-50,000 billion in Q3 sales from these two projects.
- Wonder City and Royal Island are projected to contribute about VND 15,000 billion in revenue from BCC cooperation.
- VRE Q3 2026 net profit is forecast at VND 1,579 billion, up 15% year on year but down 1.9% quarter on quarter.
- Apartment and landed housing transactions fell 23% year on year to 26,567, while land plot transactions fell 40% to 73,438, per the Ministry of Construction.
What Happened
According to MBS, the Vietnamese real estate market entered a correction phase in 2026 after strong growth in 2024-2025, as higher interest rates weighed on both homebuyers and developers. The Ministry of Construction reported 26,567 apartment and landed housing transactions in the period, down 23% year on year, and 73,438 land plot transactions, down 40%. Developers have responded by limiting new launches; in the first nine months of 2026, most new supply came from Vinhomes projects including Hạ Long Xanh, Cần Giờ and Hải Vân Bay. MBS said it has not identified notable launches from other developers in the next one to two quarters.
The absorption rate has fallen sharply, with most developers focused on delivering units from earlier launches, which MBS expects to drag on year-on-year results. Against this backdrop, VHM stands out: the brokerage projects Q3 net profit of VND 17,251 billion, up 312% year on year, driven by Global Gate Hạ Long and Sài Gòn Park, which together have accumulated nearly VND 20,000 billion in sales since the previous quarter. VHM is expected to book VND 40,000-50,000 billion in Q3 sales from the two projects, with Wonder City and Royal Island adding about VND 15,000 billion in revenue from BCC cooperation. VRE is forecast to post VND 1,579 billion in net profit, up 15% year on year, supported by leasing, high occupancy and financial income of VND 1,680 billion, up 29.1%. Vincom Plaza Đan Phượng opened in late August 2026, adding nearly 27,000 sqm with 93% pre-opening occupancy. DXG, KDH and NLG face pressure from the weaker market, high rates and delivery schedules.
Market Context
VHM closed at VND 69 on 2 October 2026, up 0.29% with volume of 4,274,700 shares, on HOSE. VRE closed at VND 24,150 on 1 October 2026, while DXG closed at VND 10,200 and KDH at VND 15,150 on the same date. The divergence in forecast earnings reflects a broader trend in Vietnam’s real estate sector, where developers with large, actively selling projects are pulling ahead of those dependent on older inventories amid elevated interest rates and weak transaction volumes.
Strategic Significance
For long-term investors, the MBS forecast highlights a widening execution gap in Vietnamese real estate. VHM’s ability to generate VND 40,000-50,000 billion in quarterly sales from two projects, and to exceed its full-year profit plan within nine months, suggests its scale and project pipeline provide a buffer against sector-wide liquidity weakness. VRE’s recurring leasing income and high occupancy offer a more defensive profile, though growth is moderating. By contrast, DXG, KDH and NLG face a tougher setup: limited new launches, falling absorption and high financing costs. The key strategic question is whether VHM’s sales momentum can be sustained if interest rates remain elevated into 2027, and whether smaller developers can bridge the gap without renewed policy support.
What to Watch
- VHM’s Q3 2026 earnings release, including actual net profit versus the VND 17,251 billion forecast.
- Further MBS or other brokerage updates on DXG, KDH and NLG Q3 results and delivery schedules.
- State Bank of Vietnam policy meetings and any changes to interest rate settings.
- Monthly Ministry of Construction transaction data for apartments, landed housing and land plots.
- New project launch announcements from developers other than Vinhomes, particularly in Hà Nội and Hồ Chí Minh City.