VIS Rating: VHM, NVL H1 2026 Profit Surge Masks Rising Credit Risk
This Aveluro analysis covers VHM (Vinhomes) on HOSE in the Real Estate sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with negative sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a negative catalyst and risk signal for the affected stock. Source coverage came from CafeF - Bất động sản, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
VIS Rating’s H1 2026 residential real estate credit report shows listed developers, including Vinhomes (VHM) and Novaland (NVL), reporting net revenue up 89% and EBITDA up 100% year-on-year, the highest since 2022. The rating agency attributes the outsized figures to handovers of contracts signed in 2024-2025 rather than current demand, warning that underlying credit risk is building as absorption weakens and funding shifts to higher-cost bonds.
Key Facts
- H1 2026 net revenue rose 89% and EBITDA rose 100% year-on-year for listed residential developers, the highest level since 2022, per VIS Rating.
- New apartment supply in Hà Nội and Hồ Chí Minh City rose 33% year-on-year in H1 2026, but the absorption rate fell to 73% in Q2 2026 from 95% a year earlier.
- Nationwide secondary-market transaction volumes dropped 36%, with secondary prices under broad downward pressure.
- Real estate credit growth slowed to 8.6% in H1 2026 from 15% in the same period of 2025.
- Equity issuance by developers fell 86% in H1 2026, pushing firms toward corporate bonds.
- New real estate bond issuance reached VND 149.5 trillion in the first nine months of 2026, up 126% year-on-year, led by names including Vingroup and Masterise.
- Average bond coupon rose about 110 basis points to roughly 11.4% per annum.
What Happened
VIS Rating published the findings in its report “Residential Real Estate Sector - H2 2026 Outlook.” The agency said the strong H1 2026 income statement performance is a lagging reflection of deliveries from contracts signed in prior years, while current sales momentum has stalled. Floating mortgage rates averaging 14%-16% per year have weighed on buyer sentiment, and operating cash flow (CFO) has returned to negative territory for most listed developers as new sales stall.
On the funding side, VIS Rating said bank credit is narrowing as a channel: real estate credit growth decelerated to 8.6% in H1 2026 from 15% a year earlier as regulators tightened lending to cool the market. Equity raising has effectively frozen, with issuance value down 86% in H1 2026. Developers have therefore turned to corporate bonds, accepting what the report describes as expensive capital. New real estate bond issuance reached VND 149.5 trillion in the first nine months of 2026, up 126% year-on-year, with Vingroup and Masterise among the leading issuers, and average coupons rising about 110 basis points to roughly 11.4% per annum. The report states that this reliance on high-cost debt is lifting sector leverage, with the average debt-to-equity ratio of listed developers climbing.
Market Context
Vinhomes (VHM) trades on HOSE and closed at 68 on 7 October 2026, down 1.30% on volume of 1,317,800 shares. Novaland (NVL), also on HOSE, closed at 10,400 on 6 October 2026. Both tickers sit in the residential real estate sector that VIS Rating assesses, and the report’s framing of peak reported earnings against weakening absorption and rising leverage applies to the sector broadly rather than to any single issuer. The sector-level signal arrives as Vietnamese real estate credit growth slows and developers lean more heavily on bond markets.
Strategic Significance
For long-term investors, the report separates reported earnings from cash generation. Revenue and EBITDA growth in H1 2026 reflects deliveries from contracts signed in 2024-2025, a finite backlog; with absorption at 73% and secondary transactions down 36%, the pipeline that feeds future recognition is thinning. At the same time, the funding mix is shifting from bank credit and equity to corporate bonds at roughly 11.4% coupons, which raises interest costs and refinancing risk. The strategic question for VHM, NVL and peers is whether presale recovery arrives before the current backlog is exhausted and before higher-cost debt maturities concentrate.
What to Watch
- Q3 2026 earnings releases from VHM and NVL, particularly presale and unbilled backlog disclosures.
- Monthly or quarterly updates on Hà Nội and Hồ Chí Minh City absorption rates versus the 73% Q2 2026 reading.
- Real estate credit growth data from the State Bank of Vietnam for H2 2026 against the 8.6% H1 figure.
- Corporate bond issuance volumes and average coupons for the remainder of 2026, versus the VND 149.5 trillion and 11.4% nine-month figures.
- Debt-to-equity disclosures in upcoming financial statements for listed developers.