Vinhomes, Nam Long, Khang Dien: MBS 2026 Forecast as Absorption Falls to 40-50%

Overview

MBS (Chung khoan MB) forecasts Vietnam’s residential real estate market will continue correcting through 2026 as elevated interest rates weigh on buyers and developers, with H2 2026 absorption estimated at only 40-50%. The report singles out Vinhomes (VHM, HOSE) for projected profit growth of 312%, while Nam Long (NLG) and Khang Dien (KDH) are seen facing pressure. The call matters because it frames 2026 as a volume-led correction rather than a broad price collapse.

Key Facts

• MBS estimates H2 2026 market absorption at 40-50%, roughly 10 percentage points lower than the same period a year earlier.
• Total real estate transactions in H1 2026 reached 239,860, down 18% year-on-year, per Ministry of Construction data cited by MBS.
• 12-month deposit rates are reported at 7.5-9% per annum, up about 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.
• Hanoi primary apartment supply in H1 2026 was about 16,600 units, up 57% year-on-year; Ho Chi Minh City supply reached about 4,600 units, up 228%.
• Secondary apartment prices in Hanoi corrected 10-20% year-on-year depending on location and product type.
• Average primary prices at new Hanoi projects in Q2 reached about VND 95 million per square metre, up 21% year-on-year.
• MBS projects Vinhomes profit growth of 312%, with Nam Long and Khang Dien under pressure.

What Happened

According to a sector report from MBS, Vietnam’s property market entered a correction phase from 2026 after strong growth in 2024-2025, with a higher interest-rate baseline raising financing pressure on both homebuyers and developers. The report cites Ministry of Construction data showing H1 2026 transactions of 239,860, an 18% year-on-year decline, and attributes the slowdown to cautious buyers facing 12-month deposit rates of 7.5-9%.

Supply, meanwhile, expanded. Hanoi recorded about 16,600 new apartment units in H1 2026, up 57%, while Ho Chi Minh City supply rose 228% to roughly 4,600 units, largely from suburban projects in Q1. MBS notes secondary Hanoi prices fell 10-20% year-on-year, but primary prices at new Hanoi projects averaged about VND 95 million per square metre in Q2, up 21%, a gap the broker attributes mainly to product-segment mix. With primary supply expected to stay high in 2026-2027 and large developers such as Vinhomes, Sun Group and Masterise selling at mega-projects, MBS sees further correction risk if rates stay elevated.

Market Context

VHM closed at VND 68 on 7 October 2026, down 1.01% on volume of 3,929,100 shares, on HOSE. NLG closed at VND 21,450 and KDH at VND 14,850 on 6 October 2026. The MBS view lands in a market where residential developers have already de-rated on slower presales, and where the divergence between primary pricing power and secondary discounting is the central debate for the sector.

Strategic Significance

The report implies a widening gap between developers with mega-project pipelines and balance-sheet scale and those dependent on mid-income absorption. Vinhomes’ projected 312% profit growth reflects handover timing at large projects rather than a market-wide recovery, meaning headline earnings may mask continued weakness in underlying demand. For Nam Long and Khang Dien, the thesis is more directly tied to absorption: if H2 2026 clears only 40-50% of launched stock, inventory carrying costs and slower cash collection become the key earnings variables into 2027.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings releases from VHM, NLG and KDH, particularly presales value and handover schedules.
• Monthly 12-month deposit rate prints; a sustained move below 7.5% would challenge the MBS absorption forecast.
• Ministry of Construction quarterly transaction data for Q3 2026 versus the 239,860 H1 figure.
• Primary launch pricing and absorption at Vinhomes mega-projects and competing Sun Group and Masterise launches.
• Any State Bank of Vietnam policy signals on credit growth or mortgage rates for residential buyers.