Rising Interest Rates Pose Risks for Vietnamese Securities Firms: SSI, HCM, MBS

Overview

A new report from S&I Rating highlights growing risks for Vietnamese securities companies as interest rates rise. The sector’s heavy reliance on short-term bank loans, unrealized losses on corporate bond holdings, and margin loan ratios approaching regulatory limits at several firms pose vulnerabilities. Key affected tickers include SSI, HCM, MBS, TCX, ORS, VDS, VCK, DSE, and VND.

Key Facts

• Total assets of the securities industry rose 48% in 2025 to VND 904 trillion, from VND 612 trillion in 2024.
• Margin loan balances grew 64% year-on-year, pushing the industry’s margin-to-equity ratio to 107% in 2025 (up from 91% in 2024).
• HCM’s margin-to-equity ratio reached 195.4% in Q1 2026, near the 200% regulatory cap; MBS stood at 177.6%.
• Short-term debt accounts for 96% of total liabilities, with 88% being bank loans under 12 months.
• Bond issuance (short and long-term) represents only 4.6% of total liabilities (VND 22.6 trillion out of VND 494 trillion).
• The industry’s quick liquidity ratio (cash and money market instruments to short-term payables) fell to 43% in 2025, down from 2.92x in 2015.
• Total equity grew 40% in 2025 to VND 398.9 trillion, driven by rights issues (SSI, HCM, MBS, TCX) and retained earnings.

What Happened

According to a May 14, 2026 report by S&I Rating, Vietnamese securities companies face multiple risks from rising interest rates. The rating agency notes that corporate bond holdings may incur unrealized losses as rates increase, eroding equity even if not reflected in profit-and-loss statements. The sector’s rapid asset growth has been funded largely by short-term bank loans, leaving firms vulnerable to refinancing risk and higher funding costs.

The report also highlights that several securities companies have margin loan ratios approaching the 200% regulatory limit. HCM’s ratio stood at 195.4% in Q1 2026, while MBS was at 177.6%. The industry’s overall margin-to-equity ratio was 99.7% in Q1 2026, but the distribution is uneven, with some firms having limited headroom.

Market Context

On May 13, 2026, SSI closed at VND 27,800 (-0.89%), HCM at VND 28,500 (+2.89%), MBS at VND 19,400 (flat), and TCX at VND 49,950 (-0.89%). The sector has benefited from strong market activity and capital raises, but rising rates could pressure earnings and valuations. The report’s warnings come as the State Bank of Vietnam has been tightening monetary policy to curb inflation, increasing funding costs for securities firms.

Strategic Significance

The report underscores structural vulnerabilities in the securities sector’s funding model. Heavy reliance on short-term bank loans exposes firms to interest rate hikes and credit tightening. Firms with higher margin-to-equity ratios, such as HCM and MBS, have less capacity to expand lending without raising equity or securing longer-term funding. The low proportion of bond financing (4.6% of liabilities) suggests limited access to capital markets for long-term debt, which could constrain growth if bank lending conditions tighten.

What to Watch

• Q2 2026 earnings reports from SSI, HCM, MBS, and others for margin income trends and provisioning.
• Any regulatory changes to margin lending limits or capital adequacy requirements.
• Issuance of long-term bonds by securities companies to reduce short-term debt dependence.
• SBV policy rate decisions and their impact on bank lending rates to securities firms.
• Updates from S&I Rating or other agencies on sector credit ratings and outlooks.