VHM leads record VND 225,930B homebuyer prepayments as sector faces rate shock

Overview

Homebuyer prepayments at 11 listed Vietnamese real estate firms hit a record VND 225,930 billion (about USD 9.04 billion) in Q2 2026, with Vinhomes (VHM) accounting for nearly 65% of the total. The surge in customer advances reflects past sales, but rising interest rates and a 62% drop in primary-market absorption are pressuring the sector, with over 90% of tracked real estate stocks falling in value.

Key Facts

• Total prepayments from homebuyers at 11 listed developers reached VND 225,930 billion in Q2 2026, the highest on record.
• Vinhomes (VHM) holds VND 145,880 billion in prepayments, equivalent to ~65% of the group total.
• Sunshine Group (KSF) follows with nearly VND 30,000 billion, up from under VND 500 billion at end-2021.
• Novaland (NVL) recorded about VND 24,551 billion, more than 12 times its end-2019 level.
• Primary-market absorption in H1 2026 was estimated at ~26,100 units, down 62% from H2 2025.
• Market-wide absorption ratio is only 20–30%, about 30 percentage points lower than late last year.
• Over 90% of 34 tracked real estate stocks declined as of end-July 2026; KDH, CEO, CKG, HDC, and DIG lost over 40%.

What Happened

According to a Tuổi Trẻ analysis of Q2 2026 financial reports from 11 listed real estate companies, the balance of customer prepayments—money paid by buyers for unfinished projects—reached VND 225,930 billion, a historic high. Vinhomes dominates with VND 145,880 billion, followed by Sunshine Group (KSF) at nearly VND 30,000 billion and Novaland (NVL) at about VND 24,551 billion. Taseco (TAL), Bluemarq Group (DXG), and Tài chính Hoàng Huy (TCH) also saw strong increases.

The surge in prepayments indicates that many developers have maintained sales momentum, but these funds are not yet recognized as revenue and only convert upon project completion and handover. Meanwhile, DXS-FERI reports that rising loan rates after the end of preferential periods have squeezed both end-users and investors, leading to a 62% drop in primary-market absorption in H1 2026 versus H2 2025. The market-wide absorption ratio now stands at just 20–30%, about 30 percentage points lower than late last year.

Market Context

Vinhomes (HOSE) closed at VND 148,100 on July 31, 2026, while KSF (HOSE) closed at VND 78, NVL (HOSE) at VND 13,000, and TAL (HNX) at VND 22,250. The sector has been under heavy selling pressure, with over 90% of 34 tracked real estate stocks declining, reflecting investor caution amid rising interest rates and weak demand. The record prepayment balance provides a liquidity cushion for developers, but the sharp drop in absorption signals potential cash-flow strain if projects are delayed or cancellations rise.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the prepayment buildup at Vinhomes and peers is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it demonstrates strong past sales and provides interest-free working capital, supporting balance-sheet liquidity. On the other, it creates delivery obligations: if projects slip or buyers default, refunds could drain cash. The sector’s reliance on customer advances also exposes developers to interest-rate cycles, as higher borrowing costs for buyers reduce future prepayments. Vinhomes’ dominant position suggests it is better positioned to weather the downturn, but the broader sector faces a challenging environment where policy support and project execution will be critical.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings reports from VHM, KSF, and NVL to see if prepayment balances continue to grow or plateau.
• Progress on key project handovers, especially Vinhomes’ large-scale developments, to confirm revenue conversion.
• Any changes in lending rates or government support for homebuyers, which could affect absorption and prepayment trends.
• Foreign ownership flows into real estate stocks, as net selling has been a headwind.
• Updates on developers’ sales policies, such as interest-rate subsidies or extended payment terms, to gauge demand resilience.