VIS Rating: Vinhomes, Dat Xanh, Nam Long Outperform as Novaland, API, NRC Face Refinancing Risk in 2026

Overview

A VIS Rating report on Vietnam’s residential real estate sector for 2026 highlights a clear divergence: large developers with strong handover pipelines, such as Vinhomes (VHM), Dat Xanh (DXG), and Nam Long (NLG), are expected to maintain stable liquidity and leverage, while Novaland (NVL), API, and NRC struggle with refinancing amid tightening credit and rising interest rates. The report underscores the impact of policy tightening and a challenging macro environment on sector dynamics.

Key Facts

• VIS Rating projects a 3-4% increase in average home loan interest rates in 2026 due to rising deposit rates and tighter credit policies.
• Apartment absorption rate fell from 106% in 2024 to 95% in 2025, signaling slowing transactions.
• Apartment prices in Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh City rose 20% in 2025, pressuring buyer affordability.
• VND 99 trillion in real estate bonds will mature in 2026, up 74% year-on-year, creating a massive refinancing need.
• Large developers with strong 2025 sales and handover plans are expected to benefit from steady cash flows from customers.
• Novaland (NVL), API, and NRC are identified as facing refinancing difficulties due to credit tightening.
• Notable M&A deals include Mitsubishi Corporation acquiring Phat Dat’s Thuan An 1 project and Viconship taking a 65% stake in Harbour City.

What Happened

According to a VIS Rating report on the residential real estate sector outlook for 2026, the market is undergoing a significant shakeout as the State Bank of Vietnam tightens credit controls. The report states that large developers with substantial handover schedules from strong 2025 sales will continue to enjoy stable liquidity and leverage ratios thanks to robust cash inflows from customers. In contrast, developers like Novaland, API, and NRC are struggling with refinancing as bank credit becomes less accessible and bond maturities surge.

The report notes that new supply in Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh City is expected to remain high in 2026, driven by high-end projects, large suburban developments, and social housing. However, demand faces headwinds from high home prices and rising interest rates. The average home loan rate could increase by 3-4% year-on-year in 2026, further dampening buyer sentiment.

Market Context

VHM closed at VND 138 on April 15, 2026, up 6.83% on the day with strong volume of 6.25 million shares, reflecting positive market reception. DXG closed at VND 15 (-0.33%), NLG at VND 29 (-0.51%), and NVL at VND 18 (+2.63%). All tickers trade on HOSE. The sector is under pressure from tightening credit and rising rates, but large-cap developers with strong handover pipelines are seen as relatively resilient. The VIS Rating report reinforces the ongoing divergence between well-capitalized players and those with weaker balance sheets.

Strategic Significance

The report highlights a structural shift in Vietnam’s real estate market: access to bank credit is no longer a given, forcing developers to diversify funding sources through bond issuance, equity markets, and M&A. Large developers with strong project pipelines and cash flows are better positioned to navigate this environment, while highly leveraged firms face existential refinancing risks. The VND 99 trillion bond maturity wall in 2026 is a critical test. The trend toward lower-priced segments and M&A activity, as seen with Mitsubishi and Viconship, suggests a consolidation phase that could reshape the competitive landscape.

What to Watch

• Q1 2026 earnings reports from VHM, DXG, NLG, and NVL for handover progress and cash flow updates.
• Bond issuance volumes and refinancing announcements from NVL, API, and NRC in the coming months.
• SBV policy statements on credit growth targets and real estate lending caps.
• Absorption rates and price trends in Ha Noi and HCMC for Q2 2026.
• Further M&A deals involving foreign investors, particularly Japanese and Singaporean firms.