Hanoi Low-Rise Housing Supply Plunges 65% YoY, Demand Strong: VHM, VIC

Overview

A market report from BHS Property reveals that Hanoi’s low-rise housing supply (villas and townhouses) dropped sharply by 65% year-on-year to just over 710 units in Q1 2026, while demand remains strong. Prices are stable to slightly increasing, signaling a market recovery but not yet a strong growth cycle. This supply crunch benefits major developers with large-scale projects, particularly Vinhomes (VHM) and its parent Vingroup (VIC).

Key Facts

• Primary supply of low-rise housing in Hanoi fell to over 710 units in Q1 2026, down more than half from the previous quarter and 65% lower than Q1 2025.
• Supply is concentrated in the western and eastern suburbs, with key projects including Vinhomes Wonder City (VHM) and HimLam Thuong Phuc Legend.
• Prices for low-rise housing in Hanoi range from VND 120 million to VND 560 million per square meter, with the highest prices (VND 330-560 million/sqm) in Hoai Duc, Viet Hung, Duong Noi, Tuong Mai, and Gia Lam.
• Compared to Q4 2025, prices are mostly unchanged, with some projects seeing a slight increase of 3-4%.
• The market is awaiting new supply from large-scale urban areas in Thuong Tin and Dong Anh, but smaller projects near central areas are launching units amid the supply shortage.
• VHM shares closed at VND 138 on April 15, 2026, up 6.83% on volume of 6.25 million shares; VIC closed at VND 177, up 6.95% on volume of 6.36 million shares.

What Happened

According to a Q1 2026 market report by BHS Property, the primary supply of low-rise housing in Hanoi fell sharply to just over 710 units, a decline of more than half from the previous quarter and 65% year-on-year. The supply drop is attributed to limited land availability and few new project launches. Most supply comes from built products in suburban areas, but absorption is limited due to high price levels.

Prices remain largely stable compared to Q4 2025, with some projects seeing a slight 3-4% increase. The report notes that the market is in a recovery phase but has not yet entered a strong growth cycle. The low-rise segment continues to be a key driver of the market, driven by strong demand for asset accumulation. Projects with advantages in planning, legal status, amenities, or location are preferred.

Market Context

Vinhomes (VHM), listed on HOSE, is a major player in the Hanoi low-rise market with its Vinhomes Wonder City project. The supply crunch supports pricing power for VHM’s existing inventory. Vingroup (VIC), also on HOSE, benefits indirectly through its real estate platform. On April 15, 2026, VHM shares surged 6.83% to VND 138, and VIC rose 6.95% to VND 177, reflecting positive sentiment in the real estate sector amid the supply shortage.

Strategic Significance

The persistent supply shortage in Hanoi’s low-rise segment reinforces the competitive advantage of large-scale developers like Vinhomes, which have land banks and legal approvals to launch new projects. The market’s reliance on major urban areas for future supply (e.g., Thuong Tin, Dong Anh) suggests that VHM’s pipeline will be critical in capturing pent-up demand. The stable-to-rising price environment supports margin stability for developers with ready inventory.

What to Watch

• Launch timeline and pricing of Vinhomes’ upcoming projects in Thuong Tin and Dong Anh.
• Q2 2026 sales data for VHM’s low-rise products, especially absorption rates.
• Any regulatory changes affecting land availability or project approvals in Hanoi.
• Competitor project launches (e.g., HimLam, An Khanh) that could ease supply constraints.
• Foreign ownership trends in VHM and VIC as institutional investors seek exposure to the supply-constrained market.