BSC: VND 80M/m2 Homes and 10.5% Mortgage Rates Still Affordable for Genuine Buyers

Overview

BSC Securities has released an analysis suggesting that current home prices of approximately VND 80 million/m2 and mortgage rates of 10-10.5% remain affordable for genuine homebuyers. The report forecasts strong profit growth for the real estate sector in 2026-2027, driven by new sales recovery and legal improvements, despite recent stock corrections of 30-50% from peaks. Key affected tickers include DXG, PDR, NLG, TCH, KDH, and VHM.

Key Facts

• BSC assumes a minimum household income of VND 50 million/month for genuine homebuyers not eligible for social housing.
• Monthly housing costs at 30-40% of income are considered safe; 50% is the maximum acceptable threshold.
• Home prices of ~VND 80 million/m2 and mortgage rates of 10-10.5% remain affordable under these assumptions.
• In 2025, Ho Chi Minh City’s Task Force 1645 held 56 meetings, resolving legal issues for 218 projects (over 130,000 units) to issue certificates.
• 32 projects with issues (14,673 properties) remain; the city requires at least 30% of cases to be resolved each quarter.
• BSC forecasts industry net profit after minority interest for 2026/2027 at VND 46,339 billion (+2.3% YoY) and VND 55,951 billion (+20.7% YoY), respectively.
• Excluding VHM, net profit is forecast at VND 2,817 billion (+12.8% YoY) for 2026 and VND 6,590 billion (+133% YoY) for 2027.
• Key stock corrections from October 2025 peaks: DXG -39.3%, PDR -38.6%, NLG -34.6%, TCH -32.2%, KDH -30.5%.

What Happened

In a recent real estate market outlook update, BSC Securities published an affordability analysis based on assumptions including average home prices from developer launch plans, a 25-year loan term, and variables such as minimum household income of VND 50 million/month, loan-to-value ratio, and interest rates. The analysis concludes that monthly housing costs of 30-40% of income are safe, with 50% as the maximum acceptable level. Under current conditions, home prices of ~VND 80 million/m2 and mortgage rates of 10-10.5% remain within reach for standard genuine homebuyers.

BSC also notes that legal bottlenecks are no longer the market’s primary concern, as the legal framework has improved, processes are standardized, and data collection through centralized real estate exchanges is accelerating project legal completion. Despite negative buyer sentiment in Q4 2025-Q1 2026, housing transaction volumes grew +35% YoY and +11% QoQ. Record inventory levels are mainly driven by newly approved products and those eligible for sale in Q4 2025.

Market Context

Real estate stocks on HOSE and HNX have experienced sharp corrections of 30-50% from their October 2025 peaks, with DXG (HOSE) down 39.3%, PDR (HOSE) down 38.6%, NLG (HOSE) down 34.6%, TCH (HOSE) down 32.2%, and KDH (HOSE) down 30.5%. The sector currently trades at a median P/B of 1.3x, below historical averages. BSC’s analysis suggests that the fundamental demand drivers remain intact, and the recent price declines may present a disconnect from improving industry fundamentals.

Strategic Significance

BSC’s affordability analysis supports the thesis that genuine housing demand remains resilient despite higher prices and interest rates, underpinned by household income growth and improved access to credit. The resolution of legal bottlenecks, as evidenced by Ho Chi Minh City’s progress on certificate issuance, reduces a key overhang for developers. The strong backlog and improved financial positions following restructuring give developers more flexibility to launch projects. The forecast of accelerating profit growth in 2026-2027, particularly excluding VHM, highlights the potential for a broad-based recovery among mid-cap developers.

What to Watch

• Q1 2026 earnings reports from DXG, PDR, NLG, TCH, and KDH for confirmation of sales recovery and margin trends.
• Progress on legal certificate issuance for the remaining 32 projects in Ho Chi Minh City.
• Mortgage rate movements and SBV policy signals on credit growth for real estate.
• New sales launch data for major projects in H2 2026 as a leading indicator of revenue.
• Foreign ownership limit changes and net foreign flows into real estate stocks.