Securities Stocks Surge on Vietnam MSCI Upgrade Hopes: VIX, HCM, SSI Lead

Overview

On May 6, 2025, Vietnamese securities stocks surged on news that Vietnam has a high probability of being added to the MSCI Watchlist for Emerging Markets status in the June 2026 review. VIX and HCM hit ceiling prices, while SSI, SHS, BVS, VND, TCI, and VCI posted gains exceeding 4%. The rally was driven by expectations of sustained high liquidity and increased foreign capital inflows, which directly benefit brokerage and margin lending revenues.

Key Facts

• VIX and HCM hit ceiling prices (maximum daily gain) on May 6, with VIX matching over 56 million shares and HCM seeing strong volume.
• SSI matched nearly 29 million shares, while VND, VCI, and others also ranked among the top traded stocks.
• Vietnam was officially added to FTSE Russell’s Secondary Emerging Markets list, and is now targeting inclusion in MSCI’s Watchlist.
• SSI Research stated that Vietnam has a high likelihood of being added to the MSCI Watchlist in the June 2026 review.
• VPS Chairman Nguyen Lam Dung said at the AGM that Vietnam may negotiate with MSCI for an upgrade, potentially boosting foreign capital inflows by 4-5 times.
• Maybank Securities noted that the securities sector’s P/B is around 1.85x, with leading stocks like SSI, VCI, VND, and TCX having potential depending on scenarios.
• The price context as of April 15, 2026: HCM closed at 27 (+3.08%), SHS at 18 (+1.10%), SSI at 29 (+0.17%), VIX at 18 (+0.28%).

What Happened

On May 6, 2025, securities stocks became the market’s focal point as strong buying pressure drove prices sharply higher. VIX and HCM both hit ceiling prices with no sellers, while SHS, SSI, BVS, VND, and TCI recorded gains of over 4%. Trading volume surged, with VIX matching over 56 million shares and SSI nearly 29 million shares.

The catalyst was news that Vietnam is now on FTSE Russell’s Secondary Emerging Markets list and has a high probability of being added to MSCI’s Watchlist in the June 2026 review, according to SSI Research. This is seen as a crucial step before an official upgrade to Emerging Markets status. VPS Chairman Nguyen Lam Dung also indicated that Vietnam may negotiate with MSCI for an upgrade, which could increase foreign capital inflows by 4-5 times.

Market Context

On the day of the rally, VIX closed at 18 (+0.28% on April 15, 2026), HCM at 27 (+3.08%), SHS at 18 (+1.10%), and SSI at 29 (+0.17%). The securities sector has been sensitive to market liquidity and foreign capital flows. The potential MSCI upgrade is a structural catalyst that could sustain high trading volumes, directly boosting brokerage commissions and margin lending income for companies like VIX (HOSE), HCM (HOSE), SSI (HOSE), and others.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the MSCI upgrade narrative represents a structural shift in Vietnam’s capital market. If Vietnam is added to the MSCI Watchlist and eventually upgraded to Emerging Markets, it would attract significant passive and active foreign fund flows, estimated at 4-5 times current levels. Securities companies are the primary beneficiaries, as higher trading volumes and margin demand drive revenue growth. The sector’s current P/B of 1.85x leaves room for re-rating if the upgrade materializes. However, the timeline is extended (June 2026 for Watchlist), and near-term volatility may persist.

What to Watch

• MSCI’s official announcement in June 2026 regarding Vietnam’s Watchlist inclusion.
• Quarterly trading volume trends on HOSE and HNX to gauge liquidity sustainability.
• Securities companies’ Q2 2025 earnings reports, particularly brokerage and margin income.
• Regulatory progress on market access improvements (e.g., non-prefunding, clearing and settlement).
• Foreign ownership limit changes and any new policies to attract foreign capital.