VIX, HCM Lead Securities Surge on MSCI Watchlist Hopes; VN-Index Nears 1,890

Overview

On May 6, Vietnamese securities stocks surged as the VN-Index approached the 1,890-point resistance level, driven by expectations that Vietnam may be added to MSCI’s watchlist in the June 2026 review. VIX and HCM both hit ceiling prices with explosive volume, while SSI, SHS, VND, ORS, and VCI gained 3-4%. The rally reflects growing investor optimism about a potential market upgrade.

Key Facts

• VN-Index closed at 1,891.2 points, up 16.35 points on May 6.
• Trading volume on HoSE exceeded VND 23,400 billion.
• VIX and HCM both hit ceiling prices with strong volume.
• SSI Research noted Vietnam has a high probability of being added to MSCI’s watchlist in June 2026.
• Vietnam currently meets 10 out of 18 MSCI market accessibility criteria.
• FTSE Russell narrowed its eligible stock list to 23 names; VIC leads with an estimated USD 498 million in potential inflows.
• Foreign investors net sold over VND 1,100 billion on the whole market, with FPT accounting for more than VND 453 billion.

What Happened

According to a report from SSI Research, Vietnam has a high probability of being added to MSCI’s watchlist during the June 2026 review. The market currently satisfies 10 of the 18 criteria for market accessibility under MSCI’s framework and continues to improve on the remaining criteria. This news triggered a broad rally in securities stocks, with VIX and HCM leading the charge.

Additionally, FTSE Russell has reduced its eligible stock list to 23 names, with VIC estimated to attract the largest inflow of about USD 498 million. Other major stocks such as HPG (USD 115 million), VHM (USD 99 million), FPT (USD 69 million), and MSN (USD 63 million) are also expected to benefit from future foreign capital. The estimated total inflow from FTSE ETFs could reach USD 1.3 billion, with large funds like Vanguard expected to deploy hundreds of millions of dollars.

Market Context

On May 6, the VN-Index closed at 1,891.2, up 0.87% from the previous session. The securities sector was the standout, with VIX (UPCOM) and HCM (HOSE) both hitting ceiling prices. Banking stocks also rose, with STB, LPB, ACB, EIB, and TCB gaining. Real estate stocks improved, with VRE, DIG, KBC, and PDR up, though NVL fell 3.65%. Oil and gas stocks corrected slightly after two strong sessions. The “Vin” group cooled, with VIC flat and VHM nearly unchanged. Foreign net selling of over VND 1,100 billion was concentrated in FPT, ACB, HPG, and VIC.

Strategic Significance

The potential MSCI watchlist inclusion is a key catalyst for Vietnamese equities, particularly for securities stocks that benefit from higher trading volumes and foreign inflows. If Vietnam is added to the watchlist, it would signal progress toward a future upgrade to emerging market status, which could attract significant passive and active foreign capital. The securities sector is a direct beneficiary of increased market activity and foreign participation. However, the persistent foreign net selling, especially in large-cap names like FPT, suggests that foreign investors remain cautious in the near term.

What to Watch

• MSCI’s June 2026 review announcement for watchlist inclusion.
• FTSE Russell’s next quarterly review and any changes to eligible stock lists.
• Foreign net flow trends, particularly whether selling pressure in FPT and other large caps persists.
• Q2 2026 earnings reports from VIX, HCM, SSI, and other securities firms for evidence of revenue growth from higher trading volumes.
• Any regulatory updates on market accessibility improvements, such as non-prefunding requirements or settlement cycle changes.