VIX Leads 14 Vietnamese Brokers at Risk of Missing 2026 Profit Plans

Overview

VISRating’s latest sector outlook warns that 14 of 27 Vietnamese securities companies risk missing their 2026 profit plans, as industry return on average assets (ROAA) fell from 5.6% in 2025 to 4.3% in H1 2026. VIX, listed on HOSE, is the most affected name in the sample, with cumulative ROAA down nearly 18% and equity investment income roughly VND 300 billion lower. The pressure is concentrated in small and mid-cap brokers carrying large proprietary equity portfolios, including SHS, CTS and VDS.

Key Facts

• Industry ROAA declined to 4.3% in H1 2026 from 5.6% in 2025, with VISRating guiding to 4.2%-4.5% for the full year.
• 14 of 27 securities firms analysed are at risk of missing 2026 profit plans based on Q2 2026 data.
• VIX recorded the sharpest deterioration, with cumulative ROAA down almost 18% and stock investment income falling about VND 300 billion.
• Margin lending net margin compressed from roughly 6.9% in Q4 2024 to below 5% in Q2 2026, while average funding cost rose to about 5.9% in Q1-Q2 2026.
• Profit-plan completion rates: VND about 74%, SSI about 54%, FTS about 53% and VCK about 51%.
• Industry leverage fell to 2.2x in H1 2026 from 2.4x in 2025 after HDBS, LPS, VCBS and VIX raised a combined VND 40 trillion in new capital.
• Sector pre-tax profit volatility rose from 140% to 145%, reflecting greater earnings dispersion across the industry.

What Happened

VISRating published an updated outlook on the Vietnamese securities sector, stating that high funding costs and weaker equity investment returns are outweighing growth in investment banking income. The report attributes the ROAA decline to two forces: higher cost of capital compressing margin lending spreads, and lower equity valuations reducing proprietary trading gains. Margin lending remains the largest revenue contributor, but its net margin has fallen below 5% from about 6.9% in Q4 2024, while average funding costs climbed to roughly 5.9% in the first half of 2026 even as average margin lending rates held near 10%.

The report identifies VIX as the most exposed company, with cumulative ROAA down nearly 18% and equity investment income lower by around VND 300 billion. TVS, VDS and CTS also recorded ROAA declines alongside weaker stock investment income. Larger firms, including bank-affiliated brokers such as HDS, TCX and VPX, maintained more stable profitability through bond issuance advisory fees, while SSI and VCK benefited from steady income on bonds and certificates of deposit. VISRating notes these sources only partially offset the broader earnings pressure. The findings are based on the agency’s analysis of 27 securities companies using Q2 2026 data.

Market Context

VIX closed at VND 12,750 on 24 September 2026 on HOSE, while CTS closed at VND 21,550, SHS at VND 13,900 and VDS at VND 10,500 on the same date. The report lands as Vietnamese securities stocks trade on compressed valuations, with the sector’s earnings sensitivity to proprietary book performance now a central investor concern. The industry’s leverage reduction to 2.2x, supported by VND 40 trillion in new capital raised by HDBS, LPS, VCBS and VIX, suggests balance sheets are better capitalised even as returns on those assets fall.

Strategic Significance

The core thesis for Vietnamese brokerage stocks is shifting from balance-sheet expansion to earnings quality. Firms that relied on proprietary equity positions to drive profit growth, notably VIX, SHS, CTS and VDS, now face a structurally lower return environment as funding costs stay elevated and equity market gains moderate. Bank-affiliated brokers with fee-based investment banking pipelines and bond-heavy treasury books, such as TCX, VPX, HDS, SSI and VCK, are better positioned to defend margins. For long-term investors, the key differentiator is revenue mix: brokers with recurring fee income and lower proprietary equity exposure should show more stable profit-plan delivery through the cycle, while those dependent on margin spread and trading gains face continued downgrade risk to full-year targets.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings releases from VIX, SHS, CTS and VDS, which will show whether H1 ROAA weakness persists.
• Full-year 2026 profit-plan completion rates for VND, SSI, FTS and VCK, currently at 51-74%.
• State Bank of Vietnam policy decisions on interest rates, which drive brokerage funding costs.
• Margin lending balances and net margin trends in Q3 2026 versus the sub-5% level reported for Q2.
• Any revision to VISRating’s 4.2%-4.5% full-year ROAA forecast or to individual issuer ratings.