Vietnam Market Liquidity Hits Multi-Year Low as Vingroup Stocks Dominate HoSE

Overview

Average daily matched trading value on the HoSE has fallen to roughly VND 13,000 billion from about VND 30,000 billion in Q3 of last year, and the turnover-to-market-cap ratio has dropped to a multi-year low of approximately 0.15%. The article argues that absolute liquidity figures understate how quiet the market has become, because market capitalization rose nearly 20% over the same period while daily traded value fell almost 60%. The four Vingroup tickers VIC, VHM, VPL and VRE account for roughly one-third of HoSE market capitalization, concentrating index influence in a small group of stocks.

Key Facts

• Average daily matched trading value on HoSE fell from about VND 30,000 billion in Q3 last year to roughly VND 13,000 billion.
• The ratio of average daily matched trading value to HoSE market capitalization dropped to about 0.15%, described as a multi-year low and roughly one-quarter of the level a year earlier.
• Daily traded value declined nearly 60% year on year, while market capitalization rose almost 20% over the same period.
• VIC, VHM, VPL and VRE together represent about one-third of HoSE market capitalization, yet their daily trading volume is comparable to that of just a few individual bank stocks.
• Pyn Elite Fund’s Petri Deryng attributes the shift to rising Vietnamese deposit rates moving in line with government bond yields, pulling domestic capital from equities into bank deposits.
• SGI Capital’s Le Chi Phuc, speaking at Fmarket’s Fund Insider, said monetary easing room is largely exhausted and the economy will likely have to accept a higher interest rate floor.
• The article notes added pressure from rising global interest rates, on top of domestic credit-cycle constraints.

What Happened

The article, published in Vietnamese financial media, frames the current period as one of the quietest trading environments in years. It notes that liquidity has trended lower for more than a year, with HoSE average daily matched value sliding from around VND 30,000 billion in Q3 of last year to approximately VND 13,000 billion. The report emphasizes that the absolute number understates the slowdown, because market capitalization expanded nearly 20% over the same window, so the turnover-to-market-cap ratio fell to about 0.15%, roughly a quarter of its prior-year level.

The article attributes the divergence to a narrow market, describing a prolonged “green outside, red inside” pattern in which index gains are concentrated in a few large caps, particularly the Vingroup group. It cites Pyn Elite Fund’s Petri Deryng, who wrote to investors that rising Vietnamese deposit rates, tracking government bond yields, have prompted domestic investors to move capital from equities into bank deposits. SGI Capital’s Le Chi Phuc, speaking at Fmarket’s Fund Insider, said pressure is building from both domestic and international rates, that monetary easing room is nearly exhausted, and that a higher rate floor is likely necessary to support growth targets. The article also flags rising global interest rates as a newer headwind, and describes the outlook for a near-term return of capital flows as unclear.

Market Context

Vingroup (VIC) trades on HOSE and closed at VND 230,000 on 29 September 2026, alongside VHM at VND 69,800, VPL at VND 79,300 and VRE at VND 24,150. The article’s central point is that these four names, at roughly one-third of HoSE market capitalization, now largely determine index direction even though their daily turnover is comparable to a handful of bank stocks. That concentration, combined with falling overall liquidity, means index-level moves may say little about the breadth of participation across the securities, banking and real estate sectors.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the relevant question is whether the current liquidity trough reflects a cyclical rate-driven pause or a structural change in domestic capital allocation. The article’s cited sources lean toward the cyclical explanation: deposit and government bond yields have risen, drawing household capital away from equities, and monetary easing room is described as largely exhausted. If that reading is correct, a sustained recovery in HoSE turnover likely depends on a turn in the domestic rate cycle rather than on index-level performance alone. The concentration in Vingroup names cuts both ways: it has supported headline index levels, but it also means the index is less representative of the broader market, and any rotation out of these large caps would have an outsized effect on HoSE benchmarks relative to their actual trading volume.

What to Watch

• Monthly HoSE average daily matched trading value and the turnover-to-market-cap ratio, to confirm whether the 0.15% level marks a trough.
• Deposit rate and government bond yield trends at major Vietnamese banks, given the article’s link between yields and equity outflows.
• Foreign and domestic fund flow data, including Pyn Elite Fund and SGI Capital commentary in subsequent investor letters.
• Any State Bank of Vietnam policy signals on monetary easing room, following Le Chi Phuc’s assessment that it is nearly exhausted.
• Trading volume in VIC, VHM, VPL and VRE relative to the broader market, as a gauge of whether index concentration is widening or narrowing.