VN-Index Lags Global Peers Amid Middle East Conflict, Vingroup Stocks Dominate Rally

Overview

The VN-Index has recovered for four consecutive weeks, gaining 264 points from its March low, but still lags global markets that have surged to new highs amid easing Middle East tensions. The rally has been narrowly driven by Vingroup stocks (VIC, VHM), which contributed 73 points to the index’s 67-point weekly gain. Foreign investors have been net sellers for four straight weeks, and low liquidity suggests the recovery lacks broad participation, raising the risk of a shakeout.

Key Facts

• VN-Index closed at 1,817.17 points on the week, up 67 points (+3.84%).
• Vingroup stocks (VIC, VHM) contributed 73 points to the weekly gain: VIC +59.3 points, VHM +12.7 points.
• Foreign investors net sold VND 11,000 billion (approx. USD 440 million) over the past four weeks.
• Average weekly trading volume during the 4-week recovery was VND 26,800 billion, below the VND 37,500 billion average during the prior 3-week decline.
• Only one-third of stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, despite the VN-Index surpassing 1,800 points.
• The VN-Index remains 3.4% below its level at the onset of the Middle East conflict; the VN30 index is 3.6% lower.
• VIC closed at VND 177,000 (+6.95%) and VHM at VND 138,000 (+6.83%) on April 15, 2026.

What Happened

According to a research note from MBS Securities, the Vietnamese stock market has followed the global recovery trend but faces headwinds that have kept large-capital inflows at bay. Foreign investors have been net sellers for four consecutive weeks, offloading a total of VND 11,000 trillion. Market breadth remains weak, with only one-third of stocks above their 200-day moving average, indicating that the rally is concentrated in a few large-cap names.

Liquidity during the four-week recovery averaged VND 26,800 billion per week, lower than the VND 37,500 billion average during the prior three-week decline and even below the VND 28,600 billion recorded in the final week of the selloff. The concentration of capital in Vingroup stocks is at its highest since late 2025, raising the likelihood of a near-term pullback or rotation.

Market Context

VIC (listed on HOSE) and VHM (listed on HOSE) have been the primary drivers of the VN-Index’s recovery, with both stocks trading near their previous highs. The broader market, however, shows signs of fragility: foreign net selling has persisted, and liquidity remains subdued. The VN-Index’s 3.4% underperformance relative to its pre-conflict level contrasts sharply with global indices that have set new records. The concentration of gains in Vingroup stocks suggests that the rally is not broad-based, and a shakeout could lead to rotation into mid-cap stocks or other sectors such as retail, food, aviation, industrial real estate, and construction.

Strategic Significance

The narrow leadership of Vingroup stocks highlights the market’s dependence on a few large-cap names, which poses risks for long-term investors. If VIC and VHM correct or consolidate, the market could experience a rotation into other sectors, potentially broadening the rally. However, persistent foreign selling and low liquidity suggest that institutional investors remain cautious. The ability of the market to sustain gains without Vingroup’s support will be a key test of its underlying strength. The upcoming FTSE Russell review pass on April 8 provided a temporary boost, but sustained foreign inflows are needed for a more durable recovery.

What to Watch

• Weekly foreign net flow data to see if selling pressure abates.
• VIC and VHM price action near their old highs; a break above or sharp reversal will signal market direction.
• Trading volume on the VN-Index; a sustained increase above VND 30,000 billion per week would indicate broader participation.
• Sector rotation into mid-cap stocks or other sectors like retail, aviation, and industrial real estate.
• Any policy announcements or geopolitical developments that could shift investor sentiment.