Hanoi Apartment Prices Hit 121M VND/m2 as Vietnam Real Estate Faces Paradox

Overview

Vietnam’s real estate market is showing a paradox: supply is abundant, but absorption is weak, and prices remain high. Central Hanoi apartment prices reached VND 121 million/m2 in Q2 2026, while land plots in some areas have cut losses by 20-30%. Vinhomes (VHM) reported a 236% revenue increase in H1 2026, but other developers like Novaland (NVL), Khang Điền (KDH), and Phát Đạt (PDR) face differentiation.

Key Facts

• Central Hanoi average apartment price in Q2 2026: VND 121 million/m2, flat quarter-on-quarter, up 46% year-on-year.
• Market-wide primary supply reached ~98,000 units in H1 2026, with only ~48,000 transactions, an absorption rate of 49% (down from 62% in H1 2025).
• Land plots in some areas have seen price cuts of 20-30% from peak, as speculative capital exits.
• Floating mortgage rates are commonly 13-14%, with some up to 16%.
• Hanoi saw ~16,700 new apartment launches in H1 2026 (+26% YoY), but sales fell 8% to ~7,100 units.
• Projects priced above VND 120 million/m2 in Hanoi achieved only 53% absorption, down from 69% a year earlier.
• Vinhomes (VHM) reported H1 2026 revenue of ~VND 116,565 billion, up 236% YoY.

What Happened

According to a report by Guotai Haitong Vietnam Securities (GTHTSVN), citing data from the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS), the real estate market in H1 2026 is characterized by high supply but weak demand. The absorption rate fell to 49%, meaning only one transaction for every two products launched. This slowdown is particularly evident in the land plot segment, where speculative money has retreated, leading to price cuts of 20-30% in some areas.

Despite weak liquidity, new apartment prices have not declined. In central Hanoi, the average price in Q2 2026 was VND 121 million/m2, flat from the previous quarter but up 46% year-on-year. Even in Văn Giang, Hưng Yên, prices reached VND 67 million/m2. However, the market is showing a price ceiling: projects above VND 120 million/m2 in Hanoi saw absorption drop to 53%, and in HCMC, projects above VND 120 million/m2 absorbed only 20%.

The supply structure is skewed toward high-end and luxury segments, with mid-range apartments accounting for only 16% of supply. National inventory rose to ~29,860 products, including over 10,400 apartments, 10,400 individual houses, and nearly 8,900 land plots.

Market Context

Vinhomes (VHM), listed on HOSE, closed at VND 68,200 on 2026-08-17. The company’s H1 2026 revenue of VND 116,565 billion (+236% YoY) underscores its dominant scale, but the broader market is facing a slowdown. Novaland (NVL) closed at VND 13,200, Khang Điền (KDH) at VND 18,000, and Phát Đạt (PDR) at VND 12,100, all on HOSE. The sector is experiencing a divergence: Vinhomes benefits from its mega-projects, while smaller developers struggle with weak absorption and high inventory.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the key takeaway is the growing bifurcation in Vietnam’s real estate market. Vinhomes’ ability to generate massive revenue growth despite a weak market suggests it is capturing demand through its scale and brand. However, the overall market’s low absorption and high inventory indicate that developers with high-priced projects may face challenges in monetizing assets. The shift away from land speculation and the price ceiling for high-end apartments could pressure margins for developers focused on luxury segments. Policy and interest rate trends will be critical in determining whether the market can rebalance.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings reports from VHM, NVL, KDH, and PDR for revenue and inventory trends.
• Absorption rates for new launches in Q3 2026, especially in the high-end segment.
• Any changes in mortgage interest rates or government stimulus for the real estate sector.
• Land plot price movements in previously hot areas like Văn Giang, Hưng Yên.
• Regulatory updates on supply-side measures, such as approval of new mid-range projects.