Vingroup drives 351% H1 2026 real estate profit surge, VHM leads

Overview

Vietnam’s real estate sector reported a 351% surge in H1 2026 net profit to nearly VND 80,000 billion, but the growth is heavily concentrated in Vingroup (VHM). Excluding Vingroup, the sector’s core business remains weak, with revenue declining and profits boosted by project transfers. This bifurcation underscores the uneven recovery in the property market.

Key Facts

• H1 2026 sector net profit: ~VND 80,000 billion, up 351% year-on-year.
• Q2 2026 sector revenue: ~VND 180,000 billion, up 135%; net profit VND 46,242 billion, up 291%.
• Vingroup companies contributed ~80% of sector net profit.
• Vinhomes (VHM) net profit: VND 52,093 billion, up 380%; backlog ~VND 196,800 billion.
• Ex-Vingroup firms: Q2 revenue VND 9,288 billion, down 15%; H1 revenue VND 20,969 billion, net profit VND 7,292 billion.
• Core revenue declines: Khang Điền (KDH) down 75%; Phát Đạt (PDR) recorded only ~VND 2 billion from property sales.
• Market absorption rate: 49% in H1 2026, down from 62% a year earlier.

What Happened

According to a report by Guotai Haitong Vietnam Securities, based on FiinProX data, the real estate sector’s H1 2026 results show extreme divergence. While overall profits surged, the growth is almost entirely attributable to Vingroup, with Vinhomes alone posting VND 52,093 billion in net profit, a 380% increase. The report highlights that VHM’s performance was supported by sales and handovers at major projects, plus a large backlog of unrecognized revenue.

Excluding Vingroup, the picture is less rosy. Revenue for other firms fell 15% in Q2, and profit growth was driven mainly by project transfers or divestments at companies like Novaland (NVL), Phát Đạt (PDR), Khang Điền (KDH), and An Gia (AGG). Core business revenue remains weak, with KDH down 75% and PDR recording minimal property sales due to slow handover progress.

Market Context

VHM shares closed at VND 68 on August 17, 2026, down 0.29% on volume of 4.36 million shares on HOSE. The broader market context shows supply increasing but demand lagging: H1 2026 primary supply reached ~98,000 units, but only ~48,000 were sold, an absorption rate of 49%, down from 62% a year earlier. In Hà Nội, new supply rose 26% but sales fell 8%; in Hồ Chí Minh City, supply rose 51% but absorption remained around 50%. High-end products (above VND 120 million/m2) face particularly weak absorption, especially in HCMC at ~20%.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the data confirms that the recovery in Vietnam’s real estate sector is not broad-based. Vingroup’s dominance suggests that scale, brand, and project execution are key competitive advantages, while smaller developers struggle with cash flow and handover delays. The reliance on project transfers for profits at NVL, PDR, KDH, and AGG indicates that these firms are managing liquidity rather than growing organically. The falling absorption rate, especially in the high-end segment, signals potential pricing pressure and inventory build-up, which could affect future earnings quality.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings reports from VHM and ex-Vingroup firms to see if core revenue improves.
• VHM’s backlog conversion: whether it can sustain profit growth through handovers.
• Regulatory changes or policy support for the property market, such as interest rate cuts or credit easing.
• Absorption rates in Hà Nội and HCMC, particularly for high-end projects.
• Any further project transfers or divestments by NVL, PDR, KDH, or AGG, which could signal ongoing liquidity constraints.