Large-cap banking stocks to lead Vietnam market in H2 2026: ACBS

Overview

ACB Securities (ACBS) expects large-cap banking stocks to lead the Vietnamese stock market in the second half of 2026, citing stable business fundamentals and attractive valuations. The sector faces headwinds from narrowing net interest margins (NIM) and slower profit growth, but analysts believe the group remains a top pick for medium- to long-term investors.

Key Facts

• ACBS reports Q1 2026 pre-tax profit for 27 listed banks rose 14.2% YoY but fell 3.1% QoQ.
• Sector NIM declined to approximately 3% in Q1 2026, the lowest in recent years.
• Sector P/E currently ranges between 10.8x and 10.9x, roughly 10% below the historical median.
• State-owned banks (VCB, CTG) and high-credit-limit banks (MBB, VPB, HDB) outperformed the industry average.
• Cost-to-income ratio (CIR) improved to ~29.8%, down from over 40% pre-COVID.
• Credit cost remains low at ~0.27% per quarter; NPL coverage ratio stands at ~80%.
• Decree 304/2025/ND-CP, effective December 2025, is expected to support collateral handling and bad debt recovery.

What Happened

In a sector update, ACB Securities highlighted that large-cap banking stocks are poised to lead the market in H2 2026 despite a slowdown in profit growth. The brokerage noted that Q1 2026 pre-tax profit for 27 listed banks increased 14.2% year-on-year but declined 3.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a deceleration from the strong growth seen in 2025.

ACBS attributed the slower profit outlook to NIM compression, which fell to around 3% in Q1 2026, the lowest level in years. However, the firm emphasized that state-owned banks such as Vietcombank (VCB) and VietinBank (CTG), along with banks granted high credit limits like MBBank (MBB), VPBank (VPB), and HDBank (HDB), continue to deliver above-average results. The report also cited digital transformation as a key driver of efficiency, with the sector’s CIR dropping to 29.8%.

Market Context

On June 4, 2026, VCB closed at VND 62,200 (+0.48%), CTG at VND 34,100 (+0.44%), MBB at VND 25,000 (-0.79%), VPB at VND 26,500 (+0.19%), and HDB at an undisclosed level. All five tickers trade on HOSE. The banking sector has been a market leader in recent years, but profit growth is moderating as NIM compression and rising competition weigh on margins. The sector’s current P/E of 10.8-10.9x is below its historical average, suggesting room for re-rating if earnings hold up.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the banking sector’s appeal lies in its combination of low valuations, improving operational efficiency, and supportive regulatory changes. Decree 304/2025/ND-CP could accelerate bad debt resolution, while digital transformation is structurally lowering cost bases. However, the divergence between state-owned and private banks is likely to widen, with state-owned banks benefiting from cheaper funding costs and more resilient NIMs. Investors should monitor NIM trends and credit growth allocation to gauge which banks can sustain profitability.

What to Watch

• Q2 2026 earnings reports for VCB, CTG, MBB, VPB, and HDB, due in July-August 2026.
• SBV policy on credit growth quotas for 2026, expected in late Q3.
• NIM trajectory across the sector, particularly for private banks.
• Implementation progress of Decree 304/2025/ND-CP and its impact on NPL recovery.
• Foreign ownership changes in large-cap banks, as any increase could boost valuations.