80% of Vietnamese Securities Stocks in Bear Market: SSI, SHS, VIX Slide

Overview

About 80% of Vietnam’s 43 listed securities stocks have fallen more than 20% from their recent peaks, the threshold commonly used to define a bear market, according to statistics compiled after the October 9 trading session. The drawdown spans the sector’s largest names, including SSI on HOSE, and comes as VPBankS forecasts weaker Q3/2026 earnings on a high base from Q3/2025.

Key Facts

• Approximately 80% of 43 securities stocks had fallen more than 20% from their recent peaks as of the October 9 session.
• APG declined 62%, VDS fell 51%, and CSI dropped 51% from their respective peaks.
• SHS and VIX each declined 45% from their recent highs.
• VDS suspended its planned capital increase amid the adverse share price move, even after Vietnam’s market upgrade milestone on September 21.
• Both TCBS and SSI have raised charter capital above VND 30,000B.
• VPBankS forecasts SSI’s Q3/2026 net profit at VND 1,131B, down 23.4% year-on-year, and HCM at VND 380B, down 13.7%.
• TCBS is forecast to post VND 1,664B in Q3/2026 profit, up 2.7% year-on-year.
• Kafi (KAI) has finalized an issuance plan at VND 15,000 per share despite a sharp price decline since listing on UPCoM.

What Happened

The statistics, covering 43 securities stocks after the October 9 session, show roughly 80% trading more than 20% below their recent peaks. APG recorded the steepest decline at 62%, followed by VDS and CSI at 51% each, while SHS and VIX both fell 45%. For VDS, the price weakness prompted the company to halt a planned capital increase, even as the sector’s capital race continues following Vietnam’s September 21 market upgrade milestone.

A VPBankS assessment cited in the article forecasts a weaker Q3/2026 for the sector, attributing the decline mainly to the high comparison base of Q3/2025, when liquidity and trading value surged and contributed heavily to brokerage revenue. The report projects SSI’s Q3/2026 net profit at VND 1,131B, down 23.4% year-on-year, and HCM at VND 380B, down 13.7%, while TCBS is expected to grow 2.7% to VND 1,664B. The divergence reflects differing income structures: brokerage faces base pressure, while margin lending is expected to hold steady or edge higher on elevated outstanding balances and rising margin rates. Investment banking may continue growing on bond-market capital-raising demand, though likely not enough to fully offset the brokerage decline.

Market Context

SSI closed at VND 19,000 on October 11, 2026, on HOSE, while SHS traded at VND 11,700, VIX at VND 11,650, and VDS at VND 9,440. The sector-wide drawdown marks a sharp reversal from the liquidity-driven rally that peaked in 2025 and has weighed on securities names even after the FTSE Russell upgrade decision on September 21. The article notes that capital strength is creating a widening gap between leading firms and the rest: TCBS and SSI have both lifted charter capital above VND 30,000B, and HSC is proceeding with a private placement to professional investors following its existing-shareholder offering, with HFIC and investor Trần Quí Thanh participating in both rounds.

Strategic Significance

The selloff separates securities firms by earnings mix rather than by headline valuation. Companies with large margin-lending books and investment-banking pipelines, notably SSI and TCBS, retain revenue sources that are less directly tied to daily cash equity turnover, while brokers dependent on retail brokerage commissions face the steepest base effects. The VDS capital-increase suspension illustrates a second-order risk: falling share prices can delay the equity raises that firms need to expand margin capacity, potentially entrenching the advantage of already well-capitalized players. Nhất Việt’s Nguyễn Minh Hoàng argues that a low valuation versus historical averages is not sufficient to draw money back into stocks if expected equity returns remain uncompetitive against deposits, bonds, business investment, and new IPO and issuance supply.

What to Watch

• Q3/2026 earnings releases from SSI, HCM, and TCBS, and whether actual results track the VPBankS forecasts.
• Whether VDS revives or formally cancels its capital-increase plan.
• Margin lending balances and margin interest rates in Q3/2026 filings, as the key offset to brokerage weakness.
• Progress on HSC’s private placement to professional investors and further participation by HFIC or Trần Quí Thanh.
• Daily market turnover on HOSE, given its direct link to brokerage revenue and the sector’s earnings recovery path.