SSI and Bank-Backed Securities Firms to Benefit from 2026 Debt Expansion, NSI Says

Overview

NSI Securities (NSI) projects the Vietnamese securities industry will expand its asset base significantly in 2026, with total debt likely to increase by at least 40% year-on-year. Companies backed by parent banks, including SSI Securities Corporation (SSI), are expected to benefit from lower funding costs. The forecast comes alongside a slight downward revision to sector profit expectations.

Key Facts

• NSI forecasts total debt of the securities industry to rise at least 40% in 2026 under a base scenario of 8-8.5% GDP growth and 15% credit growth.
• In a more optimistic scenario with GDP above 8.5% and credit growth exceeding 15%, industry debt could rise at least 50% year-on-year.
• NSI revised down its 2026 revenue and net profit forecasts for the securities sector by 3.8% and 5.4%, respectively, from previous estimates.
• Companies with parent bank backing, such as TCX, VPX, and SSI, are highlighted as beneficiaries due to lower cost of capital.
• Debt growth is expected to slow in H1 2026 due to interest rate and FX pressures, then accelerate in H2 2026 as public investment and foreign capital improve.
• VN-Index is approaching 1,900 points, with the securities sector’s P/E and P/B ratios now at their 5-year average levels.
• Vietnam’s stock market has been recognized as a secondary emerging market by FTSE, supporting a re-rating of the sector.

What Happened

In a recent report, NSI Securities provided its outlook for the Vietnamese securities industry in 2026, citing strong macroeconomic tailwinds. The government targets high GDP growth and at least 15% credit expansion, which NSI expects to drive demand for margin lending and proprietary trading. As a result, the industry’s total debt could surge by at least 40% in 2026, with an even higher 50% increase possible under a more favorable scenario.

NSI noted that securities firms with parent bank support, such as SSI, TCX, and VPX, are well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to their lower funding costs. However, the firm also trimmed its revenue and net profit forecasts for the sector by 3.8% and 5.4%, respectively, citing declining profitability from higher capital costs and weaker investment returns. Despite the revision, NSI expects sector profits to remain positive in H1 2026 on sustained market liquidity, with growth slowing in H2 due to a high base effect.

Market Context

SSI shares closed at VND 27,500 on May 30, 2026, down 0.18% with volume of 11.7 million shares. The stock trades on HOSE. The broader VN-Index is approaching 1,900 points, and the securities sector’s valuation multiples have corrected to their 5-year averages. NSI’s report suggests that the sector is entering a re-rating cycle, supported by Vietnam’s FTSE secondary emerging market upgrade and strong economic growth prospects.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the report underscores the structural advantage of bank-backed securities firms like SSI. As the industry expands its balance sheet to meet rising capital demand, companies with access to cheap funding from parent banks can grow market share in margin lending and proprietary trading. The FTSE upgrade also enhances the sector’s appeal to foreign investors, potentially driving valuation multiples higher. However, the downward profit revision highlights near-term headwinds from rising costs, making it important to monitor the pace of debt growth and profitability.

What to Watch

• Q2 2026 earnings reports from SSI and peers, due in July, to gauge actual profit trends.
• SBV policy decisions on interest rates and credit growth targets for H2 2026.
• Foreign capital flows into Vietnamese equities, especially following the FTSE upgrade.
• NSI’s next industry update for any further revisions to debt or profit forecasts.
• SSI’s debt levels and margin lending growth in its quarterly financial statements.