NSI Forecasts 40-50% Surge in Securities Industry Debt in 2026, Boosting Margin Lending for SSI and Peers

Overview

NSI Securities (NSI) projects that total debt in the Vietnamese securities industry could increase by at least 40-50% in 2026, driven by GDP growth of 8.0-8.5% and credit expansion of at least 15%. This would provide stable funding for margin lending and market liquidity, benefiting major securities firms such as SSI, TCX, VPX, HCM, and VCI. However, NSI also revised down its 2026 revenue and profit forecasts for the sector by 3.8% and 5.4% due to rising capital costs and lower investment returns.

Key Facts

• NSI forecasts total securities industry debt could rise at least 40% in the base case and 50% in the positive scenario (GDP >8.5%, credit growth >15%).
• Average daily trading value reached VND 35,000 billion in Q1 2026, up 92% year-on-year and 18.6% quarter-on-quarter.
• NSI cut its 2026 revenue and net profit forecasts for the sector by 3.8% and 5.4% respectively due to higher capital costs and lower investment profitability.
• The Ministry of Finance issued Circular 08/2026/TT-BTC on February 3, 2026, enabling non-pre-funding for foreign investors, supporting FTSE reclassification in March 2026.
• Vietnam is expected to be included in the FTSE index from September 2026, potentially attracting USD 800 million to USD 4 billion in passive inflows and USD 5-10 billion total foreign capital over 1-2 years.
• NSI expects brokerage and margin lending revenue for large securities firms (SSI, TCX, VPX) and institutional brokerage leaders (HCM, VCI) to increase 20-30%, but provisioning costs of 3-5% of charter capital will apply under new regulations.
• As of May 28, 2026, SSI closed at VND 27,550 (-1.25%), HCM at VND 27,550 (+0.18%), TCX at VND 41,800 (-2.79%), and VPX at VND 27,300 (-1.09%).

What Happened

NSI Securities published an industry outlook for 2026, highlighting that in the base case of 8.0-8.5% GDP growth and at least 15% credit growth, total securities industry debt could rise at least 40%. In a positive scenario with GDP exceeding 8.5% and credit growth above 15%, debt could increase by at least 50%, providing stable funding for margin lending and supporting the VN-Index. NSI noted that market growth may slow in H1 2026 due to interest rate and exchange rate pressures, before accelerating in H2 on public investment and improved foreign capital flows.

NSI emphasized that companies with low-cost funding advantages and backing from parent banks, such as TCX, VPX, and SSI, will benefit significantly. Their debt levels are expected to accelerate in H2 2026 to finance margin lending and proprietary trading. However, NSI revised down its 2026 revenue and net profit forecasts for the sector by 3.8% and 5.4% respectively, citing higher capital costs and declining investment returns. Despite this, sector profits are expected to grow in H1 due to high market liquidity, before slowing in H2 on a high base from late 2025.

Market Context

On May 28, 2026, SSI (HOSE) closed at VND 27,550, down 1.25% on volume of 15 million shares. HCM (HOSE) closed flat at VND 27,550, TCX (HOSE) fell 2.79% to VND 41,800, and VPX (HOSE) declined 1.09% to VND 27,300. The VN-Index is approaching the 1,900-point level, with recent volatility driven by Vingroup stocks. The sector outlook is positive for margin lending growth, but rising capital costs and provisioning requirements may pressure near-term earnings.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the key thesis is that Vietnam’s securities sector is poised for structural growth driven by credit expansion, market deepening, and foreign capital inflows from FTSE reclassification. Firms with strong banking relationships (TCX, VPX, SSI) and leading institutional brokerage (HCM, VCI) are best positioned to capture margin lending and brokerage revenue growth. However, the new provisioning rules (3-5% of charter capital) will increase costs, and the sector’s profitability may face headwinds from rising capital costs. The FTSE upgrade in September 2026 is a critical catalyst that could unlock significant passive and active foreign inflows, benefiting market liquidity and valuations.

What to Watch

• Q2 2026 earnings reports from SSI, HCM, VCI, TCX, and VPX for margin loan growth and provisioning charges.
• VN-Index performance and average daily trading value trends through H2 2026.
• FTSE Russell’s official confirmation of Vietnam’s upgrade in September 2026 and subsequent foreign capital flows.
• SBV policy on credit growth and interest rates, which will impact securities firms’ funding costs.
• Implementation of Circular 08/2026/TT-BTC and its effect on foreign investor participation and market liquidity.