PV Power (POW) 2026 Forecast: BSC Sees 150% Profit Surge on El Nino and VND 1.6 Trillion Compensation

Overview

BIDV Securities (BSC) has raised its 2026 forecasts for PV Power (POW), the largest listed power generator in Vietnam, projecting a 57% revenue increase and a 150% profit surge. The upgrade is driven by the prolonged El Nino cycle, higher electricity prices on the competitive generation market (CGM), and a one-off VND 1.6 trillion foreign exchange compensation from Vietnam Electricity (EVN).

Key Facts

• BSC forecasts PV Power (POW) 2026 consolidated revenue of VND 58,729 billion, up 57% year-on-year.
• Net profit attributable to parent company is projected at VND 5,854 billion, up 150% year-on-year, implying EPS of VND 1,908.
• The VND 1.6 trillion forex compensation from EVN contributes approximately 51% of the profit forecast upgrade.
• BSC raised its CGM price assumption for 2026 to VND 1,260/kWh, up 40% year-on-year.
• Commercial electricity output is forecast at 23.6 billion kWh, up from previous estimates.
• The El Nino phenomenon is expected to persist from mid-2026 into 2027, boosting thermal power dispatch.
• BSC raised Vung Ang 1 thermal plant output forecast by 25% to 7.73 billion kWh, and Nhon Trach 1 by 8%.

What Happened

BIDV Securities (BSC) published an updated report on PV Power (POW), significantly raising its 2026 financial forecasts. The revision reflects multiple favorable factors: the prolonged El Nino cycle, rising competitive generation market (CGM) prices, increased thermal power output, and a one-off VND 1.6 trillion foreign exchange compensation from EVN. According to the report, the compensation alone accounts for 51% of the profit upgrade.

BSC also adjusted its assumptions for commercial electricity output to 23.6 billion kWh and raised the average CGM price assumption by 33% to VND 1,260/kWh. The brokerage noted that fuel cost pass-through mechanisms in power purchase agreements (PPAs) protect PV Power’s margins from rising LNG and coal prices. The average selling price is expected to reach VND 2,412/kWh, improving gross margin to 12.5%.

Market Context

POW shares closed at VND 14,100 on July 12, 2026, down 0.70% on volume of 8.2 million shares. The stock trades on HOSE. The broader energy sector has been volatile amid regulatory changes and global fuel price fluctuations. The El Nino-driven demand for thermal power is a key catalyst for POW, as it benefits from higher dispatch and pricing. The VND 1.6 trillion compensation, if realized, would provide a significant one-time boost to earnings.

Strategic Significance

The forecast underscores PV Power’s position as a key beneficiary of structural shifts in Vietnam’s power mix. The prolonged El Nino cycle and the government’s push for gas-fired power (LNG) support long-term demand for thermal generation. The forex compensation from EVN highlights ongoing settlement of legacy issues, which could improve cash flow and reduce balance sheet risk. However, the reliance on a one-off compensation for a large portion of profit growth means underlying operational improvements are critical for sustained performance.

What to Watch

• Confirmation of the VND 1.6 trillion forex compensation from EVN in Q3 or Q4 2026 earnings.
• Actual CGM prices and thermal power dispatch data for the remainder of 2026.
• Progress on the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 LNG projects and their impact on long-term capacity.
• Fuel cost trends, particularly LNG and coal prices, and their effect on margins.
• Any regulatory changes to electricity pricing or PPA mechanisms.