Vietnam Power Prices: EVN Costs Rise, Retail Rates Lag
This Aveluro analysis covers POW on HOSE in the Utilities sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with mixed sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Source coverage came from VnEconomy - Chứng khoán, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Vietnam’s electricity consumption grew 10.2% year-on-year in H1 2026, reaching 152.5 TWh, according to EVN. However, rising fuel and generation costs are pressuring EVN’s purchase costs while retail prices remain regulated, creating mixed prospects for the power sector and its listed players, including POW, GAS, and NT2.
Key Facts
- Vietnam’s commercial electricity output reached 152.5 TWh in H1 2026, up 10.2% year-on-year.
- Yuanta forecasts electricity consumption to reach ~510 TWh by 2030, implying a 10% CAGR for 2025–2030E.
- Vietnam targets ~10% annual GDP growth for 2026–2030, supporting power demand.
- Retail electricity prices were raised 4.8% in May 2025 to VND 2,204/kWh.
- Gas price for the Lô B project is high at ~USD 14/MMBTU, leading to PPA prices of ~VND 2,500/kWh.
- Nhơn Trạch 3 & 4 LNG power plants estimate selling prices at ~VND 3,600/kWh, well above the average retail price.
- The revised Electricity Law draft, expected in September, proposes a retail pricing mechanism reflecting input costs.
What Happened
Vietnam’s power demand continues to grow robustly, with EVN reporting a 10.2% increase in commercial electricity output in H1 2026. This growth is supported by the government’s target of ~10% annual GDP growth for 2026–2030, which would drive electricity consumption to ~510 TWh by 2030, per Yuanta’s forecast.
However, the sector faces a structural challenge: while demand grows, the cost of supplying electricity is rising. EVN’s purchase costs are increasing due to volatile fuel prices, weather conditions, and greater reliance on higher-cost generation sources. Retail prices, though adjusted upward by 4.8% in May 2025 to VND 2,204/kWh, remain regulated and are adjusted cautiously to avoid harming the economy. This creates a squeeze on EVN’s margins and affects the viability of new power projects, particularly gas-fired ones.
Market Context
POW (HOSE) closed at VND 13,550 on 2026-08-24, while GAS (HOSE) traded at VND 85,000, NT2 (HOSE) at VND 21,350, and BTP (UPCOM) at VND 7,400. The sector is under pressure from rising input costs and regulatory uncertainty. The government’s focus on energy security and cost recovery is central to the sector’s outlook, with policy adjustments expected to influence profitability.
Strategic Significance
For long-term investors, the key issue is whether Vietnam can transition to a cost-reflective pricing mechanism. The draft Electricity Law, expected in September, proposes a retail pricing framework that would allow prices to adjust more closely to input costs. If implemented, this could improve EVN’s financial health and support the viability of new gas and LNG projects, benefiting companies like GAS and NT2. However, the pace of reform and the government’s willingness to pass on higher costs to consumers remain critical uncertainties.
What to Watch
- Passage and implementation of the revised Electricity Law, expected in September.
- Further retail price adjustments in 2026 and 2027.
- Progress on the Lô B gas project and PPA negotiations.
- Q3 2026 earnings reports from POW, GAS, and NT2 for margin trends.
- Government decisions on fuel supply security and import diversification.