KDH Faces VN-Diamond Removal in October 2026 Review, Mirae Asset Says

Overview

Mirae Asset forecasts that Nhà Khang Điền (KDH, HOSE) will be removed from the VN-Diamond index at the October 2026 semi-annual review after failing the 65% foreign ownership limit (FOL) maintenance requirement. No new constituents are expected to be added, and FPT is flagged as carrying a rising removal risk in subsequent reviews. The forecast matters for KDH holders because index-tracking funds would be forced to liquidate their positions during the 26-30 October 2026 rebalancing window.

Key Facts

• HOSE is scheduled to announce the new VN-Diamond constituent list on 19 October 2026, with effect from 2 November 2026; index-tracking funds rebalance between 26 and 30 October 2026.
• KDH currently carries a 0.6% weight in the VN-Diamond basket and fails the minimum 65% FOL maintenance rule under section 3.7 of the index methodology.
• Mirae Asset estimates index-tracking funds would sell approximately 4.2 million KDH shares if the removal proceeds.
• The post-review basket is forecast at 17 constituents with no additions; the entry threshold requires FOL above 95%, while leading candidates sit only around 60-70%.
• FPT has recorded consecutive months below the 65% FOL level; staying in the basket requires an average FOL above 71.5% over the next six months, equivalent to roughly 138.2 million shares of net foreign buying.
• Estimated fund selling: MSB 6.2 million shares, GMD 5.3 million shares, KDH 4.2 million shares. Estimated fund buying: PNJ 6.0 million shares, NLG 3.9 million shares, REE 3.4 million shares.
• After rebalancing, the largest weights are forecast at FPT 15%, MWG 15%, PNJ 9.5%, TCB 8.7% and ACB 7.7%, with banking capped at a 40% sector limit.

What Happened

Mirae Asset published a forecast based on data as of 17 September 2026 concluding that existing VN-Diamond constituents continue to meet retention criteria except KDH. The brokerage attributes the expected removal to KDH’s failure to satisfy the index’s minimum 65% FOL maintenance requirement, a rule designed to keep the basket accessible to foreign investors in stocks with limited foreign room. Because no new names qualify, the October review is characterised as a pure rebalancing exercise rather than a composition expansion.

The report also highlights FPT as a watch item. The technology group has posted several consecutive months with FOL below 65%, and Mirae Asset calculates that retaining its place requires an average FOL above 71.5% over the following six months, implying net foreign purchases of about 138.2 million shares. The brokerage describes that hurdle as substantial and says the risk of FPT approaching removal is becoming clearer. The forecast does not disclose a formal HOSE decision; the 19 October 2026 announcement remains the confirming event.

Market Context

KDH closed at VND 16,000 on 22 September 2026 on HOSE, a level that leaves limited cushion against forced index-related supply. FPT closed at VND 66,600, MWG at VND 72,800 and PNJ at VND 35,800 on the same date. The broader market backdrop described in the source material includes a sharp drop in liquidity across the three exchanges, with matched order value of roughly VND 14,000 billion, a low level typically associated with cautious positioning. Foreign investors have continued net selling, which has narrowed the pool of VN-Diamond candidates and kept leading names well below the 95% FOL entry threshold.

Strategic Significance

For long-term holders, the VN-Diamond question is less about KDH’s property fundamentals than about the mechanics of passive flows. Removal would convert a 0.6% index weight into a defined block of roughly 4.2 million shares of mechanical selling concentrated in a five-day window, a supply event that can pressure the share price independently of earnings. The wider signal is that Vietnam’s foreign-access index framework is becoming harder to satisfy as foreign room erodes across large caps, which raises the scarcity value of names such as PNJ, NLG and REE that stand to absorb rebalancing demand. FPT’s situation is the more consequential long-term issue: a 138.2 million share foreign buying requirement over six months is a high bar, and any further drift below the FOL threshold would put the index’s largest single weight at risk.

What to Watch

• HOSE’s official VN-Diamond constituent announcement on 19 October 2026 and the effective date of 2 November 2026.
• Actual fund flows during the 26-30 October 2026 rebalancing window, particularly whether KDH selling matches the 4.2 million share estimate.
• Monthly foreign ownership data for FPT to track progress toward the 71.5% six-month average threshold.
• Foreign net buying or selling trends across VN-Diamond candidates, given the 95% FOL entry requirement.
• Any update to HOSE index methodology or FOL rules that would alter retention criteria for existing constituents.