Vietnam Real Estate Paradox: Falling Liquidity, High Primary Prices

Overview

Vietnam’s real estate market is experiencing a paradox: liquidity is declining sharply while primary prices remain high. According to a report by DKRA Consulting, absorption rates in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi have dropped significantly, putting pressure on developers like Nhà Khang Điền (KDH).

Key Facts

• In July, HCMC saw about 10,500 new apartments launched, but only 1,650 were sold, an absorption rate of 16%, down 67% month-on-month.
• For landed property (townhouses, villas), about 7,750 units were offered, but only 137 transacted, an absorption rate of 2%, down 70% from the previous month.
• Nationwide, online listings for property sales fell 9% in July, while buyer interest dropped 8% (Batdongsan data).
• In HCMC, listings fell 11% and interest 9%; townhouses saw the steepest decline with listings down 19% and interest down 13%.
• Primary apartment prices in HCMC ranged from 80-100 million VND/m2 in July; in Hanoi, average primary prices reached 116 million VND/m2 in Q2/2026, up 16% quarter-on-quarter and 27% year-on-year.
• Over 72% of new supply in Hanoi is in the high-end or luxury segment, keeping average prices elevated.
• Developers are increasingly offering financial incentives rather than cutting list prices to stimulate demand.

What Happened

A report from DKRA Consulting, cited in the article, reveals a stark contrast between supply and demand in Vietnam’s property market. In July, HCMC saw a surge in new apartment supply, but sales plummeted, resulting in an absorption rate of just 16%. The landed property segment fared worse, with only 2% of new products finding buyers. Online data from Batdongsan corroborates the cooling demand, with both listings and buyer interest declining across the country.

Despite weak liquidity, primary prices remain at record highs. In Hanoi, average primary apartment prices hit 116 million VND/m2 in Q2/2026, according to Savills Vietnam, with 60% of supply priced above 90 million VND/m2. The high price levels are partly due to a supply shift toward luxury developments. This paradox is forcing developers to rely on financial incentives, such as payment deferrals and discounts, to maintain sales volumes without cutting list prices.

Market Context

Nhà Khang Điền (KDH), listed on HOSE, closed at VND 17,000 on September 8, 2026, up 0.29% with low volume of 729,400 shares. The company is a major residential developer in HCMC, focusing on mid-range and affordable housing. The current market slowdown, particularly in HCMC, directly impacts KDH’s sales velocity and cash flow. The broader Vietnamese real estate sector is facing headwinds from high interest rates and tightened credit, while developers struggle to align prices with buyer affordability.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the paradox highlights the pricing power of developers like KDH, who are reluctant to cut prices due to high land and construction costs. However, sustained low absorption could force a correction, impacting revenue recognition and project timelines. KDH’s strategy of developing mid-range projects may be more resilient than luxury-focused peers, as demand for affordable housing remains structurally strong. The company’s recent establishment of a subsidiary with VND 2,500 billion charter capital for a large project suggests confidence in long-term demand, but near-term market conditions pose risks.

What to Watch

• Monthly absorption rates in HCMC and Hanoi for new launches, especially in the mid-range segment.
• Any signs of primary price adjustments or increased promotional activities by major developers.
• KDH’s quarterly sales and project launch updates, particularly for its new large-scale development.
• Policy responses from the State Bank of Vietnam regarding credit access for property buyers.
• Secondary market price trends, which may indicate the direction of primary prices.