MBS Forecasts 13% Domestic Steel Demand Growth in 2026, HPG to Benefit
This Aveluro analysis covers HPG on HOSE in the Basic Resources sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with positive sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a positive catalyst in the stock's news coverage. Source coverage came from CafeF - Thị trường chứng khoán, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
MBS Securities forecasts domestic steel demand to grow 13% in 2026 and 10% in 2027, driven by public investment and real estate recovery. Hoa Phat Group (HPG), the largest steel producer in Vietnam, is positioned to benefit from this trend. Exports face headwinds from tariffs, but steel prices are expected to recover in the 2026-2027 period.
Key Facts
- MBS forecasts domestic steel consumption to grow 13% in 2026 to about 27 million tonnes.
- In 2027, domestic consumption is expected to rise another 10% to nearly 31 million tonnes.
- Construction steel demand is forecast to increase 18% in 2026 to 14.5 million tonnes.
- HRC consumption is expected to grow 15% in 2026, supported by Dung Quat 2 plant adding 5 million tonnes of HRC.
- Export volumes are expected to be flat in 2026 at about 5.4 million tonnes, with average export prices down 7%.
- In 2027, construction steel exports may fall 15%, but HRC exports could rise 7%.
- Steel prices are expected to recover in the 2026-2027 cycle.
What Happened
MBS Securities published a sector report on the steel industry, highlighting a divergence between domestic demand and export prospects. Domestic consumption has been strong, with total steel consumption in the first five months of 2026 reaching about 13 million tonnes, up 18% year-on-year. HRC and construction steel volumes rose 35% and 22%, respectively.
MBS forecasts that domestic demand will remain the key growth driver, supported by public investment and improving real estate supply. In contrast, exports face challenges from anti-dumping tariffs imposed by the EU and US, with export volumes expected to be flat in 2026 and 2027. Steel prices are expected to recover in the 2026-2027 period, providing a tailwind for producers.
Market Context
HPG shares closed at VND 21,850 on July 18, 2026, on the HOSE. The steel sector has been under pressure from global trade tensions, but domestic demand has provided support. MBS’s positive outlook on domestic consumption could boost sentiment for HPG, which is the largest steel producer in Vietnam and a key beneficiary of infrastructure and real estate demand.
Strategic Significance
For long-term investors, the report underscores the importance of domestic demand as a buffer against export headwinds. HPG’s dominant position in construction steel and HRC, along with the ramp-up of Dung Quat 2, positions it to capture the growth in domestic consumption. The recovery in steel prices could also improve margins. However, the export outlook remains a risk, and investors should monitor trade policy developments.
What to Watch
- Monthly steel consumption data from the Vietnam Steel Association to confirm demand trends.
- Updates on anti-dumping tariffs from the EU and US affecting Vietnamese steel exports.
- Progress of Dung Quat 2 plant ramp-up and its impact on HRC supply.
- Public investment disbursement data, especially for infrastructure projects.
- HPG’s Q2 2026 earnings release for margin and volume details.