Hoa Phat (HPG) Mexico Anti-Dumping Duty: $285.5/Ton on HRC Steel

Overview

Mexico’s anti-dumping authority finalized duties of $285.5 per ton on hot-rolled coil (HRC) from Hoa Phat Dung Quat and $271.9 per ton on Formosa Ha Tinh, concluding an investigation opened on 3 March 2025. For HPG, listed on HOSE, the headline number looks severe against a global HRC price of $530-600 per ton, but VietinBank Securities (VBSE) assesses the direct earnings impact as immaterial because Mexico absorbs only about 0.023% of Hoa Phat’s revenue.

Key Facts

• Mexico imposed a final anti-dumping duty of $285.5 per ton on HRC from Hoa Phat Dung Quat, and $271.9 per ton on Formosa Ha Tinh; other Vietnamese exporters under investigation face $285.5 per ton.
• The final ruling was published on 3 September 2026, roughly 18 months after the investigation was initiated on 3 March 2025 following a petition by Ternium México.
• Mexico’s investigating authority found HRC imports from Vietnam and China rose 132% during September 2023 to August 2024, lifting their share of Mexican HRC imports from 9% to 14% and of domestic consumption from 1.9% to 3.7%.
• Import prices were found to be about 15% below Mexican domestic producers and about 31% below other import sources.
• Global HRC prices currently range around $530-600 per ton, so the $285.5 per ton duty equals roughly 48-54% of the selling price.
• Vietnam’s total steel export turnover to Mexico in 2024 was only about $1.26 million (roughly VND 32 billion), against Hoa Phat’s 2024 revenue of VND 140,500 billion, or about 0.023%.
• Mexico is not among Vietnam’s ten largest steel export markets.

What Happened

According to a VBSE analysis report, Mexico’s economy ministry issued the final determination in the HRC anti-dumping case on 3 September 2026, ending a process that began with a complaint from Ternium México. Hoa Phat Dung Quat, the steelmaking arm of Hoa Phat Group, received the highest rate in the case at $285.5 per ton, while Formosa Ha Tinh was assigned $271.9 per ton. Other Vietnamese exporters within the scope of the investigation were also hit with the $285.5 per ton rate.

The Mexican authority justified the duties with data showing a 132% surge in HRC shipments from Vietnam and China during the September 2023 to August 2024 investigation period, alongside pricing roughly 15% below domestic Mexican producers. VBSE noted that at $285.5 per ton, the duty effectively erases Hoa Phat’s price competitiveness in Mexico, making meaningful commercial-scale HRC exports to that market unlikely to continue. The brokerage nonetheless framed the medium- and long-term impact as limited, given the market’s tiny weight in Hoa Phat’s overall business.

Market Context

HPG closed at VND 22 on 10 September 2026, down 0.23% on volume of 7,666,300 shares, a muted reaction consistent with the negligible direct revenue exposure. The stock trades on HOSE within the Basic Resources sector, where sentiment has been driven more by domestic construction demand, Chinese steel oversupply and regional trade policy than by any single export market. Mexico’s decision adds to a broader pattern of trade-remedy actions against Vietnamese steel, including prior measures from the United States and the European Union, which keeps export-channel risk on the sector’s radar even when individual market exposure is small.

Strategic Significance

The investment case for HPG rests on domestic consumption recovery, the Dung Quat complex’s scale advantages and planned capacity additions, not on marginal export volumes to Mexico. The strategic read-through is therefore about precedent rather than lost sales: if larger buyers such as the EU, the US or ASEAN neighbors adopt similar duty levels, Hoa Phat’s export diversification strategy would face a harder test. The company’s recent milestone of one million tons of liquid pig iron per month at Dung Quat underscores that output growth must increasingly be absorbed at home or in markets still open to Vietnamese HRC. For long-term holders, the key variable is whether trade barriers multiply faster than domestic demand and regional infrastructure spending can absorb new supply.

What to Watch

• Any new anti-dumping or safeguard petitions against Vietnamese HRC in the EU, the US, India or ASEAN markets, which would matter far more than Mexico.
• Hoa Phat’s monthly and quarterly export volume disclosures, to confirm whether Mexico volumes are redirected rather than lost.
• Domestic steel demand indicators, including construction activity and public infrastructure disbursement, as the primary offset to export barriers.
• HPG’s next quarterly earnings release, for management commentary on trade-remedy exposure and export mix.
• Movements in global HRC prices, currently $530-600 per ton, which determine how punitive the $285.5 per ton duty remains in relative terms.