Hoa Phat (HPG) 9M2026 Profit Hits VND 23,746B, Beats Full-Year Plan by 8%

Overview

Hòa Phát Group (HPG), listed on HOSE, reported 9M2026 after-tax profit of VND 23,746 billion, up 104% year on year and already 8% above its full-year 2026 profit plan. Revenue for the nine months reached VND 171,539 billion, up 54%, with Q3 alone showing revenue growth of 70% and profit growth of 106% as hot-rolled coil (HRC) volumes scaled sharply.

Key Facts

• 9M2026 revenue: VND 171,539 billion, +54% YoY; after-tax profit: VND 23,746 billion, +104% YoY.
• Q3/2026 revenue: VND 62,669 billion (+70% YoY); after-tax profit: VND 8,265 billion (+106% YoY).
• Full-year 2026 targets: revenue VND 210,000 billion and after-tax profit VND 22,000 billion; 9M results equal 82% of revenue and 108% of profit targets.
• Steel contributed 97% of revenue and 77% of profit; the group paid VND 12,038 billion into the state budget across 20 provinces and cities.
• Q3 crude steel output: 3.7 million tonnes (+3% QoQ, +85% YoY); steel sales 3.8 million tonnes (+8% QoQ, +54% YoY).
• 9M crude steel output: 10.7 million tonnes (+35% YoY); steel sales 10.3 million tonnes (+39%), of which HRC reached 5.47 million tonnes (+59%).
• Hòa Phát Dung Quất rail and special steel plant (700,000 tonnes/year capacity) is 80% complete, with first rail products expected from Q2.

What Happened

According to the group’s results announcement, Q3/2026 revenue reached VND 62,669 billion and after-tax profit VND 8,265 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 70% and 106% respectively. The cumulative nine-month figures of VND 171,539 billion in revenue and VND 23,746 billion in profit compare against full-year 2026 targets of VND 210,000 billion and VND 22,000 billion, meaning the profit plan was surpassed after only three quarters.

Volume data underpinned the result. Q3 crude steel production rose 85% year on year to 3.7 million tonnes, while steel sales of construction steel, high-quality coil, HRC and billet reached 3.8 million tonnes. HRC was the largest single contributor at more than 2 million tonnes in the quarter, up 64% year on year. Downstream products were mixed: steel pipe output rose 9% to 681,000 tonnes and prestressed steel jumped 66% to over 192,000 tonnes, while coated sheet fell 4% to just over 307,000 tonnes. Agriculture remained the second-largest segment, with 365,000 pigs supplied and nearly 258 million eggs produced over nine months.

Market Context

HPG closed at VND 20,750 on 28 October 2026 on HOSE. The stock sits in the Basic Resources sector, where Hòa Phát is the dominant domestic name with 16 million tonnes of annual steel capacity, described by the company as the largest in Southeast Asia. The results land against a Vietnamese market backdrop in which steel demand, construction activity and HRC pricing are the key swing factors for the sector; the 59% nine-month increase in HRC volumes suggests the Dung Quất complex is running closer to design capacity than in prior cycles.

Strategic Significance

The core thesis for HPG is operating leverage on fixed steel capacity: with 10.7 million tonnes of crude steel produced in nine months against 16 million tonnes of annual capacity, incremental volume flows through to profit at a high margin, which is why a 54% revenue increase translated into a 104% profit increase. The 108% plan completion after three quarters removes full-year earnings risk from the near-term debate and shifts investor attention to the durability of HRC spreads and the demand outlook into 2027. The Dung Quất rail and special steel project, at 80% completion and 700,000 tonnes per year, is the next structural leg, moving the group into a higher-value product category tied to national railway infrastructure spending rather than commodity construction steel alone.

What to Watch

• Q4/2026 and full-year results, and whether the group formally raises its VND 22,000 billion profit target.
• HRC price spreads and export volumes, given HRC is now more than half of total steel sales.
• Commissioning timeline for the Dung Quất rail and special steel plant and confirmation of first rail deliveries from Q2.
• Construction steel demand indicators tied to public investment disbursement in the final quarter.
• Segment disclosure on agriculture and industrial park revenue, which the release does not quantify.