Vietnam Power Supply 2027-2028: MOIT's 8 Measures as Demand Jumps 10%
This Aveluro analysis covers EVN. The classified event type is macro policy, with neutral sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 8.0/10. Source coverage came from CafeF - Vĩ mô đầu tư, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has issued eight groups of measures to guarantee electricity supply for 2027-2028, set out at a 7 November conference chaired by Minister Lê Mạnh Hùng. The plan lands as national power demand is forecast to rise about 10% in 2027 on top of an already high 2026 base, while new baseload capacity is not yet operational and El Niño is expected to cut hydropower output by roughly 18.5 billion kWh against 2025. The measures matter directly for EVN and for listed generators and fuel suppliers including POW, NT2, QTP, GAS and PLX.
Key Facts
- MOIT announced eight groups of solutions for power supply security in the 2027-2028 period, presented at a 7 November conference chaired by Minister Lê Mạnh Hùng.
- Power demand is forecast to grow about 10% in 2027, building on a high 2026 load base; 2028 is described as potentially more difficult.
- National electricity production and imports reached an estimated 356.2 billion kWh in 2026, up 10.3% year on year and about 6.2 billion kWh above the base-case scenario.
- System peak capacity hit 57,537 MW in June 2026; Q4 2026 load is projected to rise about 13% nationally and about 14% in the north.
- Hydropower output for the full year is expected to be about 18.5 billion kWh lower than in 2025, with reservoir inflows from late October at roughly 80% of the multi-year average.
- EVN reported commercial electricity up 9.84% in the first ten months of 2026, with trade and services up 13.8% and industry and construction up 8.84%.
- Vietnam is a net importer of about 44% of its primary energy, leaving the system exposed to international coal, gas and fuel price swings.
What Happened
At the 7 November conference, held in person and online with the people’s committees of 34 provinces and cities, Minister of Industry and Trade Lê Mạnh Hùng directed the sector to implement eight coordinated groups of solutions to ensure sufficient power for production, business and households. The conference reviewed how the national power system will be operated in 2027 and the supply outlook for 2027-2028, drawing on a report from the National Power System and Electricity Market Operation Company (NSMO) and input from EVN and other energy units.
NSMO described 2026 as an exceptionally difficult year, shaped by geopolitical conflict, supply-chain disruption, high energy prices and extreme weather. It flagged that Vietnam imports roughly 44% of its primary energy on a net basis, making the system sensitive to coal, gas and fuel prices abroad. With new baseload plants requiring long investment and construction timelines, and thermal plants facing outages, repairs and fuel-security constraints, the ministry’s measures are aimed at closing a supply gap that widens in 2027 and, by the conference’s assessment, may be harder still in 2028.
Market Context
On HOSE, NT2 closed at VND 22,200 on 7 November 2026, POW at VND 12,350 and QTP at VND 10,500, levels that reflect a market still pricing fuel and hydrology risk into gas-fired and thermal generators. The supply squeeze described by MOIT is a familiar pattern for Vietnamese power equities: when hydropower disappoints and demand outruns new capacity, dispatch shifts toward gas and coal plants, supporting utilisation for operators such as NT2 and POW while raising fuel-cost pressure that feeds through GAS and PLX. EVN, the state utility, sits at the centre as buyer, system planner and price-setter, so the ministry’s directives on operation and pricing carry direct read-through for the whole listed power complex.
Strategic Significance
The eight-measure package signals that Vietnam’s power shortfall in 2027-2028 will be managed through dispatch priority and fuel logistics rather than new capacity, since baseload additions cannot arrive in time. For investors, that favours generators with available gas and thermal capacity and reliable fuel supply, and it raises the policy importance of LNG and imported coal volumes handled through GAS and PLX. The explicit 18.5 billion kWh hydropower shortfall versus 2025 is the key variable: the larger it proves, the more the system leans on higher-cost thermal and gas generation, which supports utilisation at NT2 and POW but pressures EVN’s cost recovery and the retail tariff path.
What to Watch
- Monthly EVN and NSMO system reports on reservoir inflows and hydropower output versus the 18.5 billion kWh shortfall estimate.
- Any MOIT decision on the 2027 power system operation plan and dispatch priority for gas and thermal plants.
- Q4 2026 and full-year 2026 results from POW, NT2 and QTP, including output and fuel-cost disclosures.
- Retail electricity price adjustments and their timing, given EVN’s cost-recovery position.
- LNG and coal import volumes and pricing reported by GAS and PLX through the 2027 dry season.