Vietnam PM Orders No Power Shortages, Boosts Laos and China Electricity Imports

Overview

Vietnam’s Prime Minister has issued a directive to the Ministry of Industry and Trade to ensure energy security, explicitly ordering no power shortages and increasing electricity imports from Laos and China from 2027. The plan targets at least 8,000 MW from Laos and an additional 3,000 MW from China, impacting state-owned power utility EVN and coal miner TKV.

Key Facts

• Prime Minister Le Minh Hung ordered the Ministry of Industry and Trade to ensure no power shortages for production and consumption under any circumstances.
• Vietnam plans to import at least 8,000 MW of electricity from Laos starting 2027, with potential increases based on actual demand.
• An additional 3,000 MW will be imported from China via two main routes: Lao Cai (600 MW) and Quang Ninh.
• Current imports from Laos and China are about 1,600 MW and 550 MW respectively, representing over 2.4% of total system capacity (~87,600 MW by end-2025).
• In Q1 2025, imported electricity reached over 2.9 billion kWh, equivalent to 3.8% of total system output.
• The revised Power Development Plan VIII targets total electricity production and imports of 560.4-24.6 billion kWh by 2030 and up to 1,360-1,511 billion kWh by 2050.
• The Prime Minister also directed TKV and investors to accelerate completion of coal-fired projects Na Duong II (110 MW) and An Khanh-Bac Giang (650 MW).

What Happened

In a notice concluding a meeting with the Ministry of Industry and Trade last week, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung stressed that double-digit economic growth targets pose significant challenges. He ordered the ministry to ensure energy security, stating there must be “absolutely no power or petroleum shortages for production and consumption under any circumstances.”

To meet electricity demand, especially during the dry season, the Prime Minister instructed the ministry to study and immediately implement transmission line projects to increase electricity purchases from Laos and China to the northern region by 2027. If necessary, the government will adjust or supplement intergovernmental agreements and the Power Development Plan VIII to boost imports from Laos.

Market Context

EVN, the state-owned electricity monopoly listed on UPCOM, is directly responsible for power generation and distribution. The directive reinforces EVN’s mandate to secure supply, potentially increasing its reliance on imported power. TKV, listed on HOSE, is the primary coal supplier for domestic thermal plants; the order to accelerate coal-fired projects could support TKV’s coal sales. The broader energy sector faces pressure to meet rapid economic growth, with GDP targets averaging 10% annually through 2030.

Strategic Significance

The directive signals a strategic shift toward greater regional energy integration, reducing dependence on domestic coal and gas while leveraging existing transmission links. For EVN, this means lower capital expenditure on new domestic plants but higher operational costs from imports. For TKV, the push for coal projects provides near-term demand visibility, though long-term prospects are tempered by the import expansion. The policy also aligns with Vietnam’s net-zero emissions target by 2050, as imports from Laos (largely hydropower) and China (potentially including renewables) could lower the carbon intensity of power generation.

What to Watch

• Progress on transmission line projects connecting Laos and China to northern Vietnam, particularly the 500 kV and 220 kV systems.
• Amendments to Power Development Plan VIII and intergovernmental agreements to formalize import targets.
• Q2 2025 earnings reports from EVN and TKV for signs of financial impact from import costs and coal project acceleration.
• Implementation of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and rooftop solar policies as directed by the Prime Minister.
• Updates on the Na Duong II and An Khanh-Bac Giang coal plant timelines.