SBV Proposal to Replace LDR with CDR May Push Many Vietnamese Banks Over 85% Cap
This Aveluro analysis covers BID (Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Nam (BIDV), có tiền thân là Ngân hàng Kiến thiết Việt Nam trực thuộc Bộ Tài chính được thành lậ) in the Banking sector. The classified event type is regulation change, with negative sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.9/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a negative catalyst and risk signal for the affected stock. Source coverage came from CafeF - Tài chính ngân hàng, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
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Overview
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has proposed replacing the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) with a credit-to-deposit ratio (CDR) while maintaining the 85% cap. Calculations from SHS Securities show that 13 of 18 major banks would exceed the new CDR limit based on Q1 2026 financials, potentially pressuring profitability and requiring capital structure adjustments.
Key Facts
- SBV proposes replacing LDR with CDR under a draft circular replacing Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN.
- The CDR cap remains at 85%, same as the current LDR limit.
- 13 of 18 banks in SHS’s sample have CDR above 85% as of Q1 2026.
- VPBank has the highest CDR at 112%, exceeding the cap by 27 percentage points.
- VietinBank (CTG) CDR at 95%, BIDV (BID) at 94%, MB (MBB) at 93%, Vietcombank (VCB) at 91%.
- HDBank has the lowest CDR at 78%, followed by MSB and OCB at 81%.
- VDSC estimates 17 of 26 listed banks would violate the CDR limit.
What Happened
The SBV published a draft circular for public comment that would replace the LDR ratio with CDR, keeping the maximum ratio at 85%. The change aims to better reflect the true nature of credit and funding activities. According to SHS Securities’ analysis of Q1 2026 financial reports, 13 out of 18 major banks would have CDR exceeding 85%, with VPBank leading at 112%. State-owned banks also show high ratios: VietinBank 95%, BIDV 94%, MB 93%, and Vietcombank 91%. Private banks like Sacombank (92%), SHB (90%), and Techcombank, LPBank, TPBank, VIB, Eximbank (88-89%) also exceed the cap. Only HDBank (78%), MSB (81%), and OCB (81%) remain below the threshold.
Market Context
On May 14, 2026, BID closed at VND 43,550 (+1.75%), CTG at VND 35,950 (+1.13%), MBB at VND 25,850 (+0.19%), and VCB at VND 61,000 (+1.50%). The banking sector has been under regulatory scrutiny, and this proposal could lead to tighter credit growth constraints for many banks. The affected tickers trade on HOSE (BID, CTG, VCB, MBB, VPB, TCB, ACB, STB, LPB, VIB, TPB, EIB, HDB, MSB, OCB) and HNX (SHB, NAB).
Strategic Significance
If implemented, the CDR rule would force banks with high ratios to either reduce credit growth or increase deposits and other funding sources. This could slow loan expansion, particularly for consumer and corporate lending, and compress net interest margins as banks compete for deposits. Banks with strong deposit franchises (e.g., VCB, HDB) may have a competitive advantage, while those reliant on wholesale funding or high loan growth (e.g., VPBank) face greater adjustment pressure. The SBV’s move signals a focus on systemic stability over growth, which may weigh on sector profitability in the near term.
What to Watch
- Final circular issuance and effective date; potential adjustments to the 85% cap.
- Q2 2026 earnings reports to see if banks have begun adjusting funding structures.
- SBV’s stance on granting waivers or transitional periods for non-compliant banks.
- Deposit rate trends as banks compete for funds to lower CDR.
- Any changes in credit growth targets for 2026 from SBV.