Vietnam 2026-2030 State Capital Plan Reshapes BIDV, Vietcombank, ACV Stakes

Overview

Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng signed Decision 2054 approving the 2026-2030 plan to restructure state capital in enterprises classified under Decision 40. The plan keeps 100% state ownership in EVN, Petrovietnam, Vinacomin, VNPT, Vinachem, SCIC, VEC, VNR, Vinafood 1 and Agribank, while setting new ownership ratios for BIDV, Vietcombank, VietinBank, Petrolimex, ACV, Bao Viet and Vietnam Airlines. For listed names such as BID on HOSE, the decision defines the policy ceiling on further state divestment for the next five years.

Key Facts

• Decision 2054 was signed by Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng, covering the 2026-2030 period.
• 100% state ownership retained at EVN, Petrovietnam, Vinacomin, VNPT, Vinachem, SCIC, VEC, VNR, Vinafood 1 and Agribank.
• State to hold above 50% at Petrolimex (75.87%), ACV (95.40%), Bao Viet (67.98%), Vinafor (51%) and Vinafood 2 (51.43%).
• Vietnam Airlines (VNA) state ownership to rise to 86.42% from 39.29%.
• VIMC state stake to fall to 65% from 99.469%; Vietnam Rubber Group to fall to 75% from 96.77%.
• BIDV, Vietcombank and VietinBank currently carry state ownership of 76.73%, 74.80% and 64.4% respectively.
• The article does not disclose the target ratios for the three banks after restructuring.

What Happened

The decision, issued as a government directive rather than a company filing, approves a list of state-owned and state-invested enterprises that will either retain current state capital ratios or undergo restructuring under Decree 57. The first group keeps existing ratios unchanged through 2030, with the strategic utilities and Agribank held at 100%. The second group, those with state stakes above 50%, includes Petrolimex, ACV and Bao Viet, whose current ratios are confirmed rather than reduced.

The more consequential section covers enterprises slated for active rearrangement. Vietnam Airlines, currently 39.29% state-owned, is to move to 86.42%, implying a substantial state capital injection or conversion rather than divestment. VIMC and the Vietnam Rubber Group move in the opposite direction, with state ratios cut to 65% and 75%. BIDV, Vietcombank and VietinBank are named among the banks to be restructured, but the source text truncates before stating their post-restructuring ratios.

Market Context

BID on HOSE closed at 33,650 on 28 October 2026, with VCB at 57,500, BVH at 69,800 and PLX at 35,350. The decision lands in a market where state-owned bank shares have traded on expectations of gradual foreign-room and ownership reform, and where the State Bank of Vietnam has pressed banks to raise capital. A five-year roadmap that leaves the three largest state banks in the restructuring list, without a published target ratio, keeps the divestment timeline uncertain rather than removing it.

Strategic Significance

The plan reframes the state’s role: full control is retained in utilities, grid, telecoms and Agribank, while the joint-stock banks remain candidates for ownership adjustment under Decree 57. For BIDV, the key variable is whether the state ratio moves below the current 76.73%, which would open room for strategic or foreign partners and potential capital increases. The Vietnam Airlines reversal to 86.42% signals willingness to recapitalise strategic carriers directly rather than through private placement, a template that could inform how the state handles other majority holdings.

What to Watch

• Publication of the full Decision 2054 text, including post-restructuring ratios for BIDV, Vietcombank and VietinBank.
• Any BIDV or Vietcombank filing on charter capital increases or strategic share placements.
• Implementation guidance under Decree 57 and the revised Enterprise Law.
• Vietnam Airlines shareholder documents on the mechanics of the move to 86.42% state ownership.
• Foreign-ownership room disclosures for BID, VCB and BVH following the roadmap.