Vietnam Decision 2054: State to Cut BIDV, Vietcombank Stakes to 65% by 2030

Overview

Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng signed Decision 2054 on 27 October, fixing state ownership ratios at 15 groups and corporations through the end of 2030. The decision keeps 100% state ownership at EVN and PVN, and for the banking sector directs that the state stake in BIDV (BID, HOSE) and Vietcombank (VCB, HOSE) be reduced to at least 65%, while VietinBank (CTG, HOSE) is raised to 65%. For listed bank investors, the roadmap is the first explicit post-2025 target for state divestment in the sector.

Key Facts

• Decision 2054 was signed on 27 October by Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng, covering 15 groups and corporations through 2030.
• The state currently holds 76.73% of BIDV and 74.8% of Vietcombank; both are to fall to a minimum of 65% by 2030.
• VietinBank’s state stake is about 64.46%, below the sector floor, and is to be raised to 65% by 2030.
• EVN, PVN, TKV, VNPT, Vinachem, Agribank, SCIC, VEC, VNR and Vinafood 1 remain 100% state-owned.
• Petrolimex (PLX) stays at 75.87%, ACV at 95.4% and Bảo Việt (BVH) at 67.98%.
• VIMC is to fall from 99.469% to 65%; Vietnam Airlines’ direct state holding stays at 86.42% (39.29% Ministry of Finance, 47.13% SCIC).
• The Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Vietnam are assigned to choose timing and method, with completion required in 2030.

What Happened

The decision is a ownership-planning document rather than a transaction announcement. It fixes the state ratio each entity must hold by 2030 and leaves the sequencing to the owner-representative agencies. For the banks, the reference point is Decision 40/2026, which requires the state to hold at least 65% of charter capital in banking, aviation and maritime companies. BIDV and Vietcombank sit above that floor today, so the roadmap implies net state selling; VietinBank sits marginally below and requires a small increase.

The filing does not disclose transaction values, pricing, or whether the reductions would be sold to strategic investors, domestic institutions or the market. It also does not specify whether the state stake would be diluted through new share issuance rather than sold. The article states that if targets are missed or delayed, the owner-representative agency must explain the cause and assign responsibility to the relevant collective and individuals.

Market Context

BID closed at 33,650 on 28 October, VCB at 57,500 and CTG at 30,700, with PLX at 35,350. Vietnamese bank shares have traded on asset-quality and credit-growth expectations rather than ownership structure, and the state-ownership ceiling has historically been the binding constraint on foreign ownership room at the largest listed banks. BIDV and Vietcombank are among the largest HOSE-listed lenders by assets, and any reduction in the state stake mechanically raises the shares available to non-state holders, including foreign investors subject to the sector cap.

Strategic Significance

The practical thesis is ownership-room expansion, not near-term share supply. A move from 76.73% to 65% at BIDV would shift roughly 11.7 percentage points of charter capital out of state hands, and about 9.8 points at Vietcombank, though the decision sets a floor rather than a schedule. For long-term holders, the key variable is the mechanism: a sale to strategic partners at a negotiated price supports capital and franchise value, while open-market placement adds supply. The VietinBank increase is the mirror image, a small state top-up that removes a technical breach of the 65% floor and may involve a purchase from existing holders or a private placement.

What to Watch

• Any Ministry of Finance or State Bank of Vietnam guidance on the method and timing of the BID and VCB reductions.
• BIDV and Vietcombank shareholder filings or annual general meeting resolutions on charter capital and foreign ownership limits.
• VietinBank’s mechanism for lifting the state stake from 64.46% to 65%, including whether it involves a market purchase.
• Progress reports against the 2030 deadline, given the requirement to explain any delay.
• Foreign-ownership room disclosures at BID and VCB as the primary channel through which the reduction would reach the market.