Habeco (BHN) Projects 41% Profit Drop for 2026 Amid Beer Sector Headwinds

Overview

Habeco (BHN) held its 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, approving a cautious business plan that projects a 41% year-on-year decline in net profit despite modest revenue growth. The company’s Chairman, Trần Đình Thanh, attributed the weak outlook to persistent challenges in Vietnam’s beer sector, notably the impact of Decree 100 on consumer drinking habits and broader global economic uncertainty.

Key Facts

• Habeco targets 2026 revenue of VND 7,799 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year.
• 2026 net profit is projected at VND 234 billion, a 41% decline from the VND ~400 billion achieved in 2025.
• The company reported 2025 revenue of over VND 7,683 billion (+4.3%) and net profit of approximately VND 400 billion, exceeding its plan by 75%.
• Chairman Trần Đình Thanh cited Decree 100 as a key factor altering consumption, noting that banquets now feature “only one or two bottles” of beer instead of whole cases.
• Habeco’s southern market expansion has grown over 80% in recent years, gaining presence in restaurants traditionally dominated by Heineken, Tiger, and Bia Sài Gòn.
• The company follows a product innovation strategy akin to Apple’s, launching one major upgrade per year, such as the successful Keng 1L product in 2025.
• Draught beer production in southern units has increased from 10 million liters/year to 20-30 million liters/year, indicating shifting local preferences.

What Happened

At its 2026 AGM held on April 22, Habeco’s Board of Directors, led by Chairman Trần Đình Thanh, presented and approved a business plan reflecting heightened sectoral pressures. The plan sets a revenue target of VND 7,799 billion, up 2% from 2025, but anticipates net profit to fall 41% to VND 234 billion. According to the company’s leadership, this profit “cài số lùi” (shift into reverse) stems from global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting supply chains, currency fluctuations, interest rates, oil prices, and logistics costs.

Chairman Thanh provided a vivid assessment of the market, stating that Decree 100 has “clearly changed consumer behavior.” He observed that at restaurants, weddings, and even conferences, people no longer consume large quantities of beer, with tables now typically holding just one or two bottles. Despite this, he asserted that the Bia Hà Nội brand remains in an “uptrend,” maintaining its leading position in the northern market while achieving a breakthrough in the south with over 80% growth in recent years.

Market Context

Habeco (BHN) is listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) in the Consumer Staples sector. The stock has faced pressure amid broader concerns about Vietnam’s beer industry, which has been grappling with regulatory changes and shifting consumption patterns. The company’s 2025 performance, where it exceeded its profit target by 75%, provided some resilience, but the steep 2026 profit decline projection underscores the ongoing sectoral headwinds that could weigh on investor sentiment toward beverage stocks.

Strategic Significance

The news highlights Habeco’s strategic pivot to navigate a structurally challenged domestic beer market. The company is attempting to offset volume pressure from Decree 100 by aggressively expanding geographically into the southern region, where it is displacing incumbent brands, and by focusing on premium product innovation like the Keng 1L. This two-pronged approach—market penetration and product differentiation—aims to sustain brand relevance and capture higher-margin segments even as overall consumption moderates.

What to Watch

• Habeco’s quarterly earnings releases, starting with Q1 2026, to monitor progress against the VND 234 billion full-year profit target.
• Market share data for the northern and southern regions to validate the claimed “uptrend” and over 80% southern growth.
• Further regulatory developments or clarifications regarding Decree 100’s enforcement and its long-term impact on the beverage sector.
• The launch of the company’s next annual product innovation, a key part of its stated Apple-like strategy.
• Updates on draught beer production volumes in the south as an indicator of habit change success.