Vietnam Bank Profits Up 25% in Q2 2026, But Stocks Lag: VPB, CTG, HDB

Overview

Vietnam’s banking sector reported a 25% year-on-year increase in Q2 2026 net profit, but stock prices have not reflected this strong performance. Notably, banks with the best profit growth, including VPB, CTG, and HDB, have seen their shares decline or stagnate, while rate cuts announced in August are set to pressure net interest margins (NIM) yet potentially support overall market valuations.

Key Facts

• Q2 2026 PATMI for 28 banks rose 25% YoY to VND 88 trillion, accelerating from 14% YoY in Q1 2026.
• H1 2026 PATMI reached VND 162 trillion, up 19% YoY.
• 18 out of 28 banks recorded YoY profit growth in Q2.
• NIM improved 16 basis points QoQ to 3.15%; credit growth reached 9.2% YTD; CIR fell to 31.3%.
• VPB’s H1 profit surged 66% YoY, but its stock fell 10% YTD; CTG profit up 37%, stock down 9%; HDB profit up 33%, stock down 10%; MBB profit up 27%, stock flat.
• STB stock rose 26% YTD despite a 49% profit drop; LPB rose 36% with flat profit.
• After an SBV meeting on Aug 13, banks cut deposit and lending rates; VPBank cut 6-13 month deposit rates by 240 bps to 6.0%.
• State-owned banks launched lending packages: Agribank VND 70 trillion; Vietcombank, VietinBank, BIDV each VND 50 trillion, with rate cuts of at least 100 bps.

What Happened

According to Yuanta’s statistics, the banking sector’s Q2 2026 net profit attributable to parent shareholders (PATMI) grew 25% YoY to VND 88 trillion, a sharp acceleration from the 14% growth in Q1 2026. This brought H1 2026 PATMI to VND 162 trillion, up 19% YoY. Growth was broad-based, with 18 of 28 banks reporting YoY profit increases. Key drivers included a recovery in NIM, which rose 16 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.15%, supported by longer loan tenors, strong credit growth of 9.2% YTD, and improved cost efficiency as the cost-to-income ratio fell to 31.3%.

Despite these solid fundamentals, stock prices have not followed suit. The article notes that there is almost no correlation between H1 profit growth and share price performance across 27 listed banks. Banks with the strongest profit growth, such as VPB (profit +66%, stock -10%), CTG (+37%, -9%), HDB (+33%, -10%), and MBB (+27%, flat), have seen disappointing price action. Conversely, stocks with the best YTD gains, like STB (+26% despite a 49% profit decline) and LPB (+36% with flat profit), were driven by idiosyncratic stories rather than earnings.

Following a meeting with the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) on August 13, banks quickly reduced both deposit and lending rates. VPBank cut deposit rates for 6-13 month tenors by 240 basis points to 6.0%, and 15-24 month tenors by 200 bps to 5.8%. Other banks like VCB NEO and LPBank also reduced rates. On the lending side, four state-owned banks led with preferential packages: Agribank offered VND 70 trillion, while Vietcombank, VietinBank, and BIDV each offered VND 50 trillion, targeting SMEs, agriculture, exports, and high-tech sectors, with rate cuts of at least 100 bps. Private banks followed, with Sacombank cutting rates by 200 bps on its ~VND 100 trillion export-import loan book.

Market Context

As of August 27, 2026, VPB closed at VND 27,400 on HOSE, down 10% YTD despite a 66% profit surge. CTG closed at VND 31,900, down 9%; HDB at VND 27,800, down 10%; and MBB at VND 21,050, flat. The banking sector’s underperformance comes despite strong earnings, reflecting investor concerns over NIM compression from rate cuts and broader market sentiment. The SBV’s directive to lower rates is part of a policy to support economic growth, but it directly pressures banks’ profitability. However, lower deposit rates could reduce the risk-free rate, potentially lifting price-to-earnings multiples across the market.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the disconnect between bank earnings and stock prices suggests that the market is pricing in future NIM pressure and potential credit quality issues. The rate cuts, while supportive of the economy, will likely compress NIMs in H2 2026, as highlighted in the article. Banks with strong profit growth and efficient cost management, like VPB and CTG, may be better positioned to weather the margin squeeze. However, the market’s focus on idiosyncratic stories (e.g., STB, LPB) indicates that investors are seeking catalysts beyond earnings. The policy direction from the SBV, including further rate cuts, will be crucial in determining whether bank valuations re-rate or continue to lag.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings reports for VPB, CTG, HDB, and MBB to assess NIM trends and profit sustainability.
• Further SBV policy actions, including additional rate cuts or credit growth targets.
• Loan growth data, particularly for SME and export segments, to gauge demand and credit quality.
• Foreign ownership changes in major banks, as rate cuts may affect foreign investor sentiment.
• Any M&A or capital-raising activities among private banks that could drive stock-specific moves.