Vietnam Banks H1 2026: Credit Up 8.7%, NPLs Rise 18.5%
This Aveluro analysis covers VPB (VPBank) on HOSE in the Banks sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with mixed sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Source coverage came from CafeF - Tài chính ngân hàng, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Vietnam’s listed banks reported credit growth of 8.7% in H1 2026, according to a Shinhan Securities report, but non-performing loans (NPLs) rose 18.5%, lifting the NPL ratio to 1.97%—the highest for a second quarter since 2020. The divergence between credit expansion and asset quality is becoming a key concern for investors, particularly for private banks like VPBank (HOSE: VPB), HDBank (HOSE: HDB), and Techcombank (HOSE: TCB), which led growth.
Key Facts
- Total credit of HoSE-listed banks rose 5.3% in Q2 2026, bringing H1 growth to 8.7%.
- NPLs increased 18.5% from the start of the year, with a 6.9% rise in Q2 alone.
- The NPL ratio reached 1.97%, up from 1.9% in Q1 2026—the highest Q2 level since 2020.
- VPBank led credit growth at ~23% YTD, followed by HDBank at 20.4% and Techcombank at 15.2%.
- State-owned banks grew more slowly: VietinBank and BIDV at ~5%, Vietcombank also ~5%.
- VietinBank saw NPLs surge 21.8% in Q2, a notable spike.
- Medium- and long-term loans rose 11% YTD, outpacing short-term growth.
What Happened
Shinhan Securities released a report on Vietnam’s banking sector for H1 2026, highlighting robust credit growth but deteriorating asset quality. Credit expanded 8.7% YTD, driven by private banks, while NPLs increased 18.5%, pushing the NPL ratio to 1.97%. The report notes that credit growth slowed from the same period last year due to funding pressures.
Private banks like VPBank, HDBank, and Techcombank saw strong credit expansion, while state-owned banks (SOCBs) were more cautious, with VietinBank and BIDV growing only ~5%. Vietcombank also grew ~5% but slowed quarterly, partly due to reserving limits for large infrastructure projects. The report also highlights that banks receiving forced transfers have different growth dynamics, and smaller banks are leaning toward retail lending.
Market Context
VPBank (HOSE: VPB) closed at 25,700 VND on 2026-08-21, while HDB (HOSE: HDB) was at 27,300, TCB (HOSE: TCB) at 31,650, and MBB (HOSE: MBB) at 20,850. The banking sector has been a key driver of the VN-Index, but rising NPLs could pressure valuations. The NPL ratio at 1.97% is the highest for a Q2 since 2020, signaling that asset quality is becoming a headwind despite strong credit growth. The sector’s divergence—private banks growing fast, SOCBs cautious—reflects differing risk appetites and regulatory pressures.
Strategic Significance
For long-term investors, the key takeaway is that credit growth alone is not sufficient; asset quality is deteriorating. The rise in NPLs, particularly at VietinBank, suggests that the rapid credit expansion by private banks may come with higher risk. Banks with strong credit growth but manageable NPLs, such as VPBank and HDBank, may be better positioned. However, the overall trend of rising NPLs could lead to tighter provisioning and lower profitability across the sector. The shift toward medium- and long-term lending, especially for infrastructure and real estate, may offer growth but also carries concentration risks.
What to Watch
- Q3 2026 earnings reports from VPBank, HDBank, and Techcombank for NPL trends and provisioning.
- VietinBank’s NPL trajectory, given the 21.8% Q2 spike.
- SBV policy on credit growth limits and NPL handling, especially for banks with high exposure to real estate.
- Housing loan demand, as mortgage lending remains flat at many banks.
- Any regulatory changes on forced transfers and their impact on asset quality metrics.