VIC faces $1.5T net selling in September ETF rebalancing

Overview

Vingroup (VIC) is projected to face net selling pressure of over VND 1,500 billion during the September ETF rebalancing, according to forecasts from ACBS Securities and Yuanta Vietnam. The rebalancing, triggered by reviews of the Vietnam Local Index and STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid, will see significant trading by VanEck Vietnam ETF and Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF. While VIC is expected to be sold heavily, VHM, STB, and SSB are likely to see net buying.

Key Facts

• ACBS estimates VIC could face net selling of approximately VND 1,534 billion, while VCK may see VND 265 billion in net selling.
• VHM is projected to see net buying of about VND 296 billion, STB VND 254 billion, and SSB VND 252 billion.
• Yuanta forecasts VIC net selling at over VND 1,551 billion, with VCK at VND 266 billion, MCH VND 241 billion, and VRE over VND 101 billion.
• VanEck Vietnam ETF is expected to trade around VND 2,000 billion, and Xtrackers around VND 3,100 billion during the rebalancing.
• The Vietnam Local Index is expected to add SSB and remove FTS and CEO; STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid will remove NKG.
• After rebalancing, VanEck Vietnam ETF is expected to hold 54 stocks with assets of about VND 13,658 billion; Xtrackers will hold 27 stocks with assets of about VND 10,021 billion.
• Yuanta estimates total buying of VND 2,618 billion and total selling of VND 2,572 billion, resulting in a net buying of about VND 46 billion.

What Happened

MarketVector and STOXX are scheduled to announce the results of their periodic reviews for the Vietnam Local Index and STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid on September 11, with changes effective from September 21. These indices serve as benchmarks for the VanEck Vietnam ETF and Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF, which are among the largest foreign ETFs tracking Vietnamese equities.

According to ACBS Securities, the Vietnam Local Index will add SSB and remove FTS and CEO due to insufficient free-float market capitalization. The STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid will not add new stocks but will remove NKG for failing average trading value criteria. Yuanta Vietnam provides similar forecasts, indicating a consensus on the expected changes.

Market Context

VIC, listed on HOSE, closed at VND 245,000 on September 7, 2026. The anticipated net selling of over VND 1,500 billion could exert short-term downward pressure on the stock. In contrast, VHM (HOSE) closed at VND 74,500, STB (HOSE) at VND 76,600, and VCK (HNX) at VND 29,500. The rebalancing is part of a broader trend of foreign ETF flows into Vietnamese equities, with total net buying expected to be modest at around VND 46 billion.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the ETF rebalancing highlights the influence of index methodologies on foreign capital flows. VIC’s potential exclusion or reduced weight in these indices could lead to sustained selling pressure, reflecting its large market cap but possibly lower free-float or liquidity metrics. Conversely, stocks like VHM, STB, and SSB may benefit from increased foreign ownership. This event underscores the importance of index composition in driving short-term demand, but investors should focus on underlying fundamentals and long-term growth prospects.

What to Watch

• Official index review results on September 11 and confirmation of changes.
• Actual trading volumes and net flows for VIC, VHM, STB, and SSB during the rebalancing period around September 21.
• Subsequent price movements of VIC and other affected stocks in the weeks following the rebalancing.
• Any updates from VanEck and Xtrackers on fund flows or asset sizes.
• Q3 earnings reports from VIC and other affected companies for fundamental context.