Vietnam Foreign Flows: $1.32B FTSE Upgrade Inflows Seen in H2 2026

Overview

BSC Securities (BIDV Securities) projects that foreign capital flows into Vietnam could turn more positive in the second half of 2026, driven by the FTSE Russell upgrade process. The brokerage estimates that approximately $1.32 billion will be allocated to 28 Vietnamese stocks across four tranches, with Vingroup (VIC), Vinhomes (VHM), and Hoa Phat Group (HPG) expected to be the largest beneficiaries.

Key Facts

• BSC forecasts total FTSE upgrade-related inflows of approximately $1.32 billion into Vietnamese equities.
• The inflows are expected to be distributed across four tranches: about $132 million in the first, $265 million in the second, and roughly $464 million each in the third and fourth.
• VIC is projected to attract the largest inflow, estimated at $459.4 million.
• VHM is expected to receive nearly $169 million, and HPG about $78.8 million.
• Other notable stocks in the list include VPB, MSN, VCB, SSI, VNM, VIX, and MWG.
• FTSE Russell is scheduled to announce the official list for the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) on August 21, 2026, with the effective date set for September 21, 2026.
• BSC outlines two scenarios: a positive one with stronger global risk appetite and new investment themes, and a base case where AI and semiconductor themes continue but flows remain moderate.

What Happened

In a recent strategy report, BSC Securities outlined its expectations for foreign capital flows into Vietnam in the second half of 2026. The brokerage sees two main scenarios. In the positive scenario, global risks ease, technical barriers are relaxed, and new investment themes (technology, finance, security, energy) emerge, drawing capital to Vietnam. In the base case, AI and semiconductor investment trends persist, but foreign flows do not surge dramatically; however, selling pressure from FTSE Frontier Index funds is expected to diminish, while upgrade-related buying begins.

BSC highlights that the most anticipated near-term event is FTSE Russell’s announcement of the official stock list for the FTSE GEIS, due before August 21, 2026. This is a key step for Vietnam’s transition from frontier to secondary emerging market status, effective September 21, 2026. The brokerage estimates that $1.32 billion will be allocated to 28 stocks over four tranches, with VIC leading at $459.4 million, followed by VHM ($169 million) and HPG ($78.8 million).

Market Context

As of August 20, 2026, VIC closed at VND 202,000 on the HOSE, VHM at VND 69,500, HPG at VND 21,150, and VPB at VND 24,900. The Vietnamese market has been under foreign net selling pressure in recent years, but the FTSE upgrade process is seen as a potential turning point. BSC notes that valuation divergence exists between the Vingroup group and other growth-oriented or attractively valued stocks, suggesting that foreign flows will be selective. The upgrade is expected to reduce selling from FTSE Frontier funds and attract new passive inflows.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the FTSE upgrade represents a structural shift in Vietnam’s capital markets. The estimated $1.32 billion in passive inflows could provide a significant liquidity boost, particularly for large-cap stocks like VIC, VHM, and HPG. Beyond the upgrade, BSC points to broader catalysts such as macroeconomic stability, institutional reforms, equitization of state-owned enterprises, and the introduction of international-standard products (DRs, day-trading, short-selling). These factors could enhance Vietnam’s attractiveness to foreign investors, supporting a re-rating of the market. The upgrade also aligns with the government’s goal of achieving MSCI emerging market status by 2030.

What to Watch

• FTSE Russell’s official announcement on August 21, 2026, and the final list of included stocks.
• The actual timing and size of the first tranche of inflows around September 21, 2026.
• Quarterly foreign net buying/selling data on HOSE, HNX, and UPCOM to gauge momentum.
• Policy developments on institutional reforms, DRs, and short-selling implementation.
• Q3 2026 earnings reports from VIC, VHM, and HPG to confirm fundamental support for valuations.