Vietnam FTSE Upgrade: $1.5B Passive Inflows Expected, VIC Leads

Overview

FTSE Russell is set to announce the results of its September 2026 review on August 21, 2026, officially upgrading Vietnam to secondary emerging market status effective September 21. Yuanta Securities estimates that 27 Vietnamese stocks could attract approximately $1.5 billion in passive inflows over four tranches within a year, with Vingroup (VIC) and Vinhomes (VHM) receiving the largest allocations. This event marks a milestone for Vietnam’s equity market, broadening access for international passive funds tracking FTSE indices.

Key Facts

• FTSE Russell will announce the September 2026 review on August 21, 2026; Vietnam’s upgrade to secondary emerging market takes effect September 21, 2026.
• Yuanta estimates total passive inflows of $1.5 billion across 27 Vietnamese stocks over four tranches within one year.
• First tranche: 10% weighting, ~$150 million, effective September 21, 2026.
• Second tranche: March 2027, cumulative 30%, ~$300 million.
• Third and fourth tranches: June and September 2027, ~$525 million each, completing the roadmap.
• VIC is projected to receive the largest inflow at ~$554 million (36.95% of total), with ~$55 million in the first tranche.
• VHM follows with ~$174 million total, ~$17.4 million in the first tranche; HPG ~$85.5 million, VPB ~$56 million, MSN ~$55 million.
• Other notable names include FPT (~$53.7M), VCB (~$52M), VNM (~$48.5M), SSI (~$39M), and STB (~$38M).

What Happened

According to a report by Yuanta Securities, FTSE Russell’s upcoming review on August 21, 2026, will confirm Vietnam’s transition to secondary emerging market status, effective September 21, 2026. This upgrade is expected to significantly increase the accessibility of Vietnamese equities for international passive funds that benchmark against FTSE indices.

Yuanta’s analysis identifies 27 Vietnamese stocks likely to be added to the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (FTSE GEIS), with total estimated buying value of approximately $1.5 billion. The weighting increase will be phased over four tranches within a year, starting with a 10% allocation in September 2026, followed by 20% in March 2027, and 35% each in June and September 2027. The report highlights that VIC and VHM will capture nearly half of the total inflows, with VIC alone expected to attract $554 million.

The report also notes that the first tranche of $150 million may not have a uniform impact on the entire market, but could be more pronounced for stocks with high weights or lower liquidity. Large-cap stocks account for about 53% of total buying value, with VIC and VHM alone representing nearly 49%.

Market Context

As of August 17, 2026, VIC closed at VND 198,000 on HOSE, while VHM closed at VND 68,200, HPG at VND 21,200, and VPB at VND 24,750. The upgrade announcement comes amid a period of relative stability in Vietnamese equities, with the VN-Index hovering near recent highs. The expected passive inflows could provide additional support to large-cap names, particularly those with high weights in the FTSE indices. However, the phased approach means the immediate impact may be limited, with the full effect spread over the next year.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the FTSE upgrade represents a structural shift in Vietnam’s equity market, potentially attracting a new class of international passive investors. The inclusion of 27 stocks in FTSE GEIS could enhance liquidity and valuation multiples for these names, particularly VIC and VHM, which are expected to receive the largest inflows. This development aligns with broader trends of increasing foreign participation in Vietnamese equities, driven by economic growth and market reforms. The phased implementation also provides a predictable timeline for investors to position themselves ahead of each tranche.

What to Watch

• Official FTSE Russell announcement on August 21, 2026, and confirmation of the stock list.
• First tranche implementation on September 21, 2026, and actual foreign net buying volumes.
• Subsequent tranche schedules in March, June, and September 2027, and any adjustments to index weights.
• Liquidity and price movements in high-weight stocks like VIC and VHM around each tranche.
• Any regulatory changes or market infrastructure improvements that could affect the upgrade’s implementation.