FTSE Upgrade to Bring $1.56B into Vietnamese Stocks: Top Picks VIC, VHM

Overview

Mirae Asset forecasts that passive foreign capital inflows of approximately VND 39,118 billion (USD 1.56 billion) will enter Vietnamese equities following the FTSE Russell upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market status, effective September 21, 2026. The inflows will be concentrated in large-cap stocks, with VIC (HOSE) expected to receive the largest allocation at USD 399 million, followed by VHM, LPB, VPB, and HPG.

Key Facts

• FTSE Russell confirmed on April 7, 2026, that Vietnam meets criteria for upgrade from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market, effective September 21, 2026.
• Total estimated passive inflows: VND 39,118 billion (USD 1.56 billion), distributed in four tranches from September 2026 to September 2027.
• Tranche 1 (September 2026): 10% allocation, USD 153 million (VND 3,991 billion).
• Tranche 2 (March 2027): additional 20%, USD 306 million (VND 7,823 billion), cumulative 30%.
• Tranche 3 (June 2027): additional 35%, USD 536 million (VND 13,691 billion), cumulative 65%.
• Tranche 4 (September 2027): final 35%, USD 536 million (VND 13,691 billion), completing 100%.
• Top expected recipients: VIC USD 399 million, VHM USD 147 million, LPB USD 98 million, VPB USD 92 million, HPG USD 92 million.
• Mirae Asset screened 100 largest-cap stocks; 35 qualify, with net market cap of USD 79,604 million (64.7% of screened group).

What Happened

Mirae Asset released a report detailing the expected passive capital flows into Vietnam’s stock market following the FTSE Russell upgrade. The report outlines a four-phase allocation schedule starting in September 2026 and concluding in September 2027, with the largest tranches occurring in mid-2027. The brokerage identified 33 stocks likely to receive allocations, with VIC leading at USD 399 million, VHM at USD 147 million, and LPB at USD 98 million.

The report also highlights that Vietnam is on track for the FTSE upgrade, with the central counterparty clearing (CCP) system targeted for operation in Q1/2027 and omnibus account structure implementation. These steps are also preparatory for a potential MSCI upgrade, with Vietnam possibly added to the MSCI Watch List in June 2027 or June 2028 if reforms are completed.

Market Context

VIC closed at VND 215,500 on August 12, 2026, on HOSE, reflecting strong investor interest ahead of the expected inflows. VHM closed at VND 73,800, LPB at VND 53,800, and VPB at VND 25,700. The Vietnamese market has been anticipating the FTSE upgrade for years, and the confirmation has already driven positive sentiment. The inflows are expected to boost liquidity and valuations for large caps, particularly in real estate, banking, and steel sectors.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the FTSE upgrade represents a structural shift in Vietnam’s equity market, attracting passive foreign capital that will likely persist beyond the initial allocation period. The concentration of inflows in large caps like VIC and VHM underscores their role as benchmark constituents. Additionally, the upgrade signals improved market infrastructure, which could pave the way for MSCI inclusion, further broadening the investor base. Companies with high free-float and liquidity are positioned to benefit most.

What to Watch

• Implementation of the CCP system and omnibus accounts, targeted for Q1/2027.
• Progress on foreign ownership room liberalization and forex reforms.
• MSCI’s decision on adding Vietnam to its Watch List in June 2027 or June 2028.
• Quarterly earnings reports from VIC, VHM, and major banks to gauge fundamental support for valuations.
• Actual foreign net buying volumes during the first tranche in September 2026.