Foreign net selling in Vietnam hits VND 319,660B over 4 years; VDSC sees Q3 narrowing
This Aveluro analysis covers VIC (VinGroup) on HOSE in the Real Estate sector. The classified event type is foreign flow, with negative sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.9/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a negative catalyst and risk signal for the affected stock. Source coverage came from VnEconomy - Chứng khoán, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Foreign investors have net sold nearly VND 80 trillion (approx. USD 3.2 billion) in the first half of 2026, with cumulative net selling over four years reaching VND 319,660 billion (approx. USD 12.8 billion). Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) attributes the outflow to USD strength, global capital rotation into AI and semiconductors, and trade policy uncertainty, but expects net selling to narrow in Q3 2026 as passive funds deploy capital from August 21 to September 21.
Key Facts
- Cumulative foreign net selling over four years: VND 319,660 billion (approx. USD 12.8 billion).
- H1 2026 net selling: nearly VND 80 trillion (approx. USD 3.2 billion).
- ETF net outflows in July 2026 reached VND 819 billion, up 98.6% from June.
- VDSC cites three main reasons: USD strength (Fed rate at 3.50-3.75%), global AI/semiconductor investment shift, and US trade policy uncertainty.
- Passive fund deployment schedule: four tranches starting August 21 to September 21, covering 23 eligible stocks (VIC, HPG, VHM, FPT, MSN, SSI, VNM, STB, VCB, VJC, VRE, VIX, NVL, VCI, SHB, GEX, VND, KBC, KDH, BID, DGC, BSR, GEE).
- Nine stocks removed from the FTSE list due to free-float, liquidity, or foreign room issues: SAB, DPM, HUT, DIG, EIB, DXG, PDR, FRT, KDC.
- VDSC expects net selling to narrow in Q3 2026 as passive flows enter and foreign supply-demand approaches equilibrium around the effective date.
What Happened
According to a report from Rong Viet Securities (VDSC), foreign investors have been persistent net sellers on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and other Vietnamese exchanges. The cumulative net selling over four years reached VND 319,660 billion, with nearly VND 80 trillion occurring in the first half of 2026 alone. VDSC identifies three primary drivers: the strong US dollar, as the Fed maintains rates at 3.50-3.75%; the global capital shift toward AI and semiconductor stocks, which are underrepresented in Vietnam; and trade policy uncertainty stemming from US tariff policies that increase risk premiums for export-dependent economies like Vietnam.
VDSC notes that while Vietnam’s valuation is attractive and corporate earnings growth is solid, the market lacks AI-linked profit drivers and faces currency pressure. The firm expects net selling to narrow in Q3 2026 as passive funds deploy capital in four tranches from August 21 to September 21, following the FTSE schedule. The list of 23 eligible stocks includes VIC, HPG, VHM, FPT, MSN, SSI, VNM, STB, VCB, VJC, VRE, VIX, NVL, VCI, SHB, GEX, VND, KBC, KDH, BID, DGC, BSR, and GEE.
Market Context
Foreign selling has been a persistent headwind for Vietnamese equities, particularly for large-cap stocks on HOSE. VIC closed at VND 213 on July 24, 2026, down 0.47% on volume of 1.59 million shares. HPG closed at VND 21, up 0.24%, while VHM fell 0.76% to VND 131. FPT, a tech stock, dropped 2.01% to VND 63. The broader market has been pressured by foreign outflows, though VDSC’s expectation of narrowing selling in Q3 offers a potential catalyst. The FTSE rebalancing and passive fund inflows could provide support, but active foreign investors remain cautious.
Strategic Significance
The persistent foreign selling underscores structural challenges for Vietnam’s equity market: a lack of high-growth AI/semiconductor names, currency sensitivity, and trade policy risks. However, the scheduled passive inflows from FTSE rebalancing represent a concrete near-term catalyst. For long-term investors, the key question is whether Vietnam can attract active foreign capital by addressing these gaps—such as through IPOs of tech companies or policy measures to stabilize the dong. The narrowing of net selling in Q3 would signal improved sentiment, but sustained reversal depends on global factors beyond Vietnam’s control.
What to Watch
- Passive fund deployment schedule: four tranches from August 21 to September 21, with 10%, 30%, 65%, and 100% of the final weight.
- FTSE announcement of final stock list and weights for the rebalancing.
- SBV policy actions on exchange rate and interest rates to mitigate currency pressure.
- Q2 2026 earnings reports for key stocks (VIC, HPG, VHM, FPT) to assess fundamental support.
- US trade policy developments, particularly tariff decisions affecting Vietnam.