VHM Debt Up VND 50 Trillion as Vietnam Property Faces Double Squeeze

Overview

Vietnam’s listed real estate developers are absorbing a double cost shock: home loan rates have climbed to 12-14% per year after promotional periods, while total borrowings across 31 listed developers rose 20.3% to VND 360.24 trillion by end-Q2 2026, according to S&I Ratings. Vinhomes (VHM, HOSE) accounted for the largest single increase, adding more than VND 50,000 billion of debt, mostly to fund new project development. The pressure also runs through mortgage lenders VPBank (VPB) and HDBank (HDB), where home-purchase credit growth has stalled.

Key Facts

• Post-promotional home loan rates now sit at 12-14% per year, the highest since Q1 2023, per SSI Research.
• Promotional mortgage rates at six of eight surveyed banks rose to 7.99-9.56% per year as of June 2026.
• Total borrowings of 31 listed property developers reached VND 360.24 trillion at end-Q2 2026, up 20.3%, or VND 60,897 billion quarter-on-quarter.
• The sector’s debt-to-equity ratio rose from 0.61x to 0.72x, the highest in 15 quarters; long-term debt share increased from 63.1% to 67.3%.
• VHM added more than VND 50,000 billion in borrowings, primarily for new project investment.
• Q2 2026 home-purchase lending rose just 2.4% quarter-on-quarter at VPBank, was flat at HDBank, and fell 1.4% at Techcombank.
• Absorption rates in Hà Nội and Hồ Chí Minh City fell roughly 20-40% in Q2 2026 versus prior quarters.

What Happened

SSI Research attributed the persistent rate floor to August 2026 inflation of 4.89% year-on-year, core inflation of 4.55%, lingering exchange-rate pressure, and still-elevated developed-market bond yields. The research house said the overall rate environment is unlikely to ease materially in the near term. Corporate borrowing costs for property developers are now commonly above 12% per year, while labour costs have risen as much as 25% in some cases and raw material costs 10-20%, limiting developers’ room to cut primary prices even as transactions slow.

S&I Ratings data showed the balance-sheet effect: the aggregate debt-to-equity ratio of the 31 listed developers climbed to 0.72x, the highest in 15 quarters, with long-term debt rising to 67.3% of total borrowings. VHM’s more than VND 50,000 billion increase was the standout, directed mainly at new project development. Meanwhile, credit flowing into property business activity rose about 21% year-to-date, but mortgage lending to end-buyers decelerated sharply, with VPBank up 2.4%, HDBank flat, and Techcombank down 1.4% in Q2 2026. Developers have responded with incentives including interest-rate support, principal grace periods, lower down payments, extended payment schedules, and direct discounts.

Market Context

VHM closed at 73,100 on 10 September 2026 on HOSE, while VPB and HDB closed at 27,500 and 27,450 respectively. The article frames the pressure as sector-wide rather than company-specific: capital is still entering property business credit, but it is not translating into end-buyer demand. The divergence between the roughly 21% year-to-date growth in property business lending and flat-to-negative mortgage growth at VPB and HDB is the clearest signal that developer financing and household purchasing power are moving in opposite directions.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the key question is whether VHM’s VND 50,000 billion debt increase funds assets that can be monetised before financing costs compound. The shift toward long-term debt (67.3% of the total) extends maturities but locks in higher coupons, and with input costs up 10-25%, developers cannot easily discount to clear inventory. The mortgage-lending stall at VPB and HDB matters because bank distribution is the primary channel for VHM’s end-buyer demand; if absorption remains 20-40% below prior quarters, inventory build-up becomes the binding constraint rather than land bank quality.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings releases from VHM, VPB, and HDB for updated debt and mortgage-growth figures.
• August and September 2026 CPI prints to test whether inflation cools enough to allow rate relief.
• SBV policy signals on credit growth targets and any refinancing support for property developers.
• VHM project launch and pre-sales disclosures for evidence that new debt is converting into contracted sales.
• S&I Ratings quarterly debt updates for the 31 listed developers, particularly the debt-to-equity trajectory beyond 0.72x.