Vietnam Market Q2 Profit Surges 45.4%; VN-Index Eyes 1,900

Overview

Vietnamese listed companies reported a 45.4% year-on-year increase in after-tax profit for Q2/2026, according to market data cited by VinaCapital. The asset manager argues that valuations are now attractive, with a forward P/E of 9.1 times excluding the Vingroup group, while SHS Securities sees the VN-Index potentially returning to its historical peak around 1,900 points. The FTSE Russell upgrade scheduled for September 21 is expected to be a key catalyst for foreign capital inflows.

Key Facts

• Q2/2026 after-tax profit for the whole market grew 45.4% year-on-year.
• VinaCapital estimates forward P/E at 9.1x (excluding Vingroup stocks) as of July 31, 2026.
• SHS projects VN-Index could return to the 1,900-point historical high zone.
• FTSE Russell upgrade is scheduled for September 21, 2026, expanding Vietnam’s presence in the FTSE All-World index from 48 to 49 countries.
• Foreign net selling in August slowed to about VND 2,000 billion (as of Aug 25) versus a monthly average of VND 13,600 billion in June-July.
• Total market capitalization is approximately USD 425 billion, equivalent to 83% of 2025 GDP.
• MBS selected a representative portfolio for September including VHM, VCB, TCB, STB, FPT, GMD, PVD, and VRE.

What Happened

Market-wide profit growth of 45.4% in Q2/2026 has been highlighted by VinaCapital as evidence of a solid recovery among leading companies. In a recent commentary, Nguyen Ngoc Anh Kiet, National Sales Director at VinaCapital, recommended that long-term investors consider phased or periodic investment rather than trying to time the market, citing reduced pressure to forecast and improved discipline.

SHS Securities’ senior market strategist Phan Tan Nhat noted that the VN-Index has broken above a downtrend line connecting the highs of May, June, and July 2026, opening the possibility of a return to the 1,900-point historical peak. Meanwhile, MBS Securities expects the FTSE Russell upgrade on September 21 to be a pivotal event, potentially driving significant foreign inflows as passive and active funds adjust their portfolios to reflect Vietnam’s new status in the FTSE All-World index.

Market Context

Vinhomes (VHM) closed at VND 73,000 on August 30, 2026, on the HOSE. The broader market has rallied from around 1,720 points, and the current valuation is not considered excessively cheap by some analysts, given total market cap at 83% of GDP. Foreign selling pressure has eased markedly in August, setting the stage for a possible return of foreign capital in early September. The banking sector, including VCB, TCB, and STB, remains a key beneficiary of supportive monetary policy and credit growth.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the combination of strong earnings growth and the upcoming FTSE Russell upgrade could mark a structural shift in foreign ownership dynamics. The reduction in foreign net selling, from an average of VND 13,600 billion per month in June-July to just VND 2,000 billion in August, suggests that the prolonged outflow phase may be ending. If the upgrade proceeds as expected, passive funds will be forced to increase their Vietnam exposure, potentially benefiting high-liquidity names like VHM, VCB, TCB, and STB. However, the market’s elevated valuation relative to GDP warrants caution, and investors should consider entry points during any pullbacks.

What to Watch

• Official FTSE Russell announcement on September 21, 2026, and subsequent index inclusion details.
• Foreign net buying/selling data for the first half of September to confirm the expected inflow trend.
• Q3/2026 earnings reports from key tickers (VHM, VCB, TCB, STB) to validate sustained profit growth.
• Any changes in State Bank of Vietnam monetary policy, particularly interest rate direction.
• Market reaction to the 27 stocks added to the FTSE All-Cap index, which may see increased liquidity and attention.