Vietnam Stocks: Q2 Earnings Growth and Cheap Valuations Set Stage for August Rebound
This Aveluro analysis covers VCI (Vietcap) on HOSE in the Financial Services sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with positive sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a positive catalyst in the stock's news coverage. Source coverage came from CafeF - Thị trường chứng khoán, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Vietnam’s stock market enters August with a paradox: strong Q2 earnings growth and attractive valuations, yet a weak July performance. According to FiinGroup data, total after-tax profit of 672 listed companies and banks (representing 38.9% of market cap) rose 25.6% year-on-year, with non-financials surging 36.1%. This divergence, combined with insider buying and seasonal tailwinds, could support a rebound in the VN-Index.
Key Facts
- Q2 after-tax profit of 672 listed firms and banks grew 25.6% year-on-year, per FiinGroup data as of July 29.
- Non-financial sector profit rose 36.1%, while financials grew only 10.7%.
- VN-Index fell nearly 7% in July, briefly dipping to 1,650 points.
- Excluding Vingroup-related stocks, VN-Index P/E stands at ~10.5x, near tariff-impact levels; forward P/E is ~11.8x, below 5-year average.
- MBS reports 80% historical probability of VN-Index rising in August, with average gain of 3.9% over the past six years.
- Insider buying registered at VCI, PDR, VBB, KDH, MWG, and MSB.
- FTSE Russell is set to announce portfolio review results on August 21, ahead of potential market upgrade.
What Happened
The Vietnamese stock market experienced a challenging July, with the VN-Index dropping nearly 7% and many blue-chips retreating to long-term lows. Pyn Elite Fund’s chief described it as “Horrible July.” However, the Q2 earnings season delivered robust results, particularly from non-financial companies, many of which reported record profits, including Vinhomes, Thế Giới Di Động, and FPT Retail.
Despite this positive earnings backdrop, stock prices moved inversely, pushing valuations to attractive levels. MBS believes this could stimulate a return of capital, including foreign inflows, which showed signs of net buying in the last week of July and early August. Additionally, insider buying by leaders of companies like VCI, PDR, and KDH is seen as a confidence booster.
Market Context
At the close on August 3, 2026, VCI traded at 21,750 VND on HOSE, PDR at 11,800 VND, KDH at 18,000 VND, and VBB at 13,050 VND. These levels reflect the recent correction, which has made valuations more compelling. The broader market’s forward P/E of 11.8x is below its 5-year average, and the seasonal pattern favors August gains. The upcoming FTSE Russell review on August 21 adds another catalyst for foreign flows.
Strategic Significance
The current setup offers a potential entry point for long-term investors. The strong earnings growth, especially in non-financials, suggests that the market’s fundamentals are improving, yet prices have not fully reflected this. If foreign inflows resume and the index rebounds as MBS projects (1,800-1,850 points), stocks like VCI, which is a leading securities firm, could benefit from increased trading volumes and brokerage activity. Insider buying signals management confidence, which is often a bullish indicator.
What to Watch
- FTSE Russell announcement on August 21 regarding market upgrade status.
- Continuation of foreign net buying in August, especially in blue-chips.
- Q3 earnings guidance from key non-financial companies like Vinhomes and MWG.
- Progress on real estate-related laws discussed at the National Assembly session.
- Insider buying activity at VCI, PDR, and other listed firms—whether it expands or fades.