SBV Directive 9608: Rate Cuts, Credit Room Risk for VCB, SHB, TPB, TCB

Overview

On 18 October 2026 the State Bank of Vietnam issued Directive 9608/NHNN-CSTT requiring banks to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% a year and lending rates by 1.5-2% for priority sectors, backed by explicit credit-quota penalties. VDSC’s banking team estimates SHB, TPBank and Techcombank may already sit above their 2026 credit growth limits once L/C balances are included, a margin risk that touches HOSE-listed Vietcombank (VCB), ACB, VPBank, Sacombank, SHB, TPB and Techcombank, plus UPCOM-traded NCB.

Key Facts

• Directive 9608/NHNN-CSTT, dated 18 October 2026, requires listed deposit rates for tenors of six months or more to fall by at least 0.5% a year.
• Lending rates must fall 1.5-2% a year for manufacturing, business and other priority sectors.
• Non-compliant banks face cuts to remaining-2026 credit growth quotas, lower 2027 allocations, or higher prudential safety ratios.
• At least 19 banks cut deposit rates on 19-20 October 2026, mostly by 0.5 percentage points; NCB cut by 0.6 points.
• Vietcombank, ACB, VPBank and Sacombank were among the banks adjusting rates in that window.
• Deposit growth reached 11.22% year-to-date as of 14 October 2026, against credit growth of 11.44%.
• The deposit-credit funding gap narrowed to about VND 2.35 quadrillion from a mid-year peak of roughly VND 2.8 quadrillion.

What Happened

According to VDSC’s newly published banking sector report, Directive 9608 carries more force than earlier rate guidance because the sanctions are written into the document and tied directly to each bank’s 2026-2027 credit growth allocation. The circular also instructs banks to tighten credit growth control, balance funding sources and raise underwriting and risk-management standards. VDSC said the system response was immediate: at least 19 banks lowered listed deposit rates over 19-20 October, typically by 0.5 percentage points for tenors of six months or more, with NCB moving 0.6 points.

VDSC expects deposit rates to hold flat, or at least not rise again, through the remainder of 2026. Competition for deposits is being more tightly policed, and many large joint-stock commercial banks are already at their credit growth ceilings. Some have exceeded them once balances of without-recourse purchases of documents under letters of credit issued by the bank itself are added. That reduces the need to raise funding for liquidity, limiting rate competition in the near term. VDSC nonetheless calls deeper deposit rate declines in 2027 unrealistic, given large medium- and long-term capital demand and funding growth that has not kept pace with credit.

Market Context

Vietcombank (VCB) trades on HOSE at VND 56, down 0.18% on 22 October 2026 on volume of 1.91 million shares, a muted session consistent with the sector’s low-beta profile. VPBank (VPB) closed at VND 24, down 0.62% on 2.64 million shares, while ACB stood at VND 20,400 and Sacombank at VND 63,100 on 21 October 2026. The directive lands as system credit growth of 11.44% year-to-date runs slightly ahead of deposit growth of 11.22%, keeping the funding gap near VND 2.35 quadrillion, roughly double its level at the start of 2025.

Strategic Significance

The binding constraint for Vietnamese banks in this cycle is no longer deposit pricing but the credit quota itself. By linking rate compliance to quota allocation, the SBV converts a moral-suasion request into a capital-allocation tool: banks that resist lending rate cuts risk losing the loan growth that drives earnings. For VCB, already near its ceiling, the marginal effect is a margin squeeze without a volume offset. For SHB, TPB and TCB, VDSC’s finding that L/C balances push them past 2026 limits implies either slower loan growth ahead or reliance on interbank and bond funding, both of which erode net interest margin. The structural deposit-credit gap, still twice its early-2025 level, limits how far funding costs can fall, capping the benefit of the mandated cuts.

What to Watch

• Q3 2026 earnings releases from VCB, ACB, VPB, STB, SHB, TPB and TCB, with net interest margin guidance for Q4.
• SBV credit growth statistics for October and November 2026, showing whether L/C-inclusive balances breach 2026 quotas.
• Any SBV announcement on revised 2026 or 2027 credit growth allocations, which would confirm the sanction mechanism is being used.
• Deposit rate movements in November and December 2026, testing VDSC’s flat-rate expectation.
• The deposit-credit funding gap trend after three consecutive months of narrowing.