Vietnam Stocks November Outlook: TCB, Bank Sector Face Circular 145 Test
This Aveluro analysis covers TCB (Techcombank) on HOSE in the Banks sector. The classified event type is macro policy, with mixed sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 5.6/10. Source coverage came from CafeF - Thị trường chứng khoán, classified as a primary/top-tier source.
Key Facts
Caveat: Not investment advice. · How Aveluro computed this: Aveluro combines extracted event facts, source credibility, ticker context, and market data. Scores are deterministic research signals, not recommendations.
Overview
Vietnam’s equity market enters November under pressure after the VN-Index fell 32.53 points, or 1.83%, to 1,741.62 in the final week of October, according to HoSE data cited in the local press. Foreign investors remained net sellers and liquidity contracted on both exchanges, while a new Ministry of Finance circular on securities lending and borrowing takes effect on November 16. Techcombank (TCB) and bank peers HDB, VPB, CTG and TPB are highlighted by market commentators as the group most likely to anchor the index through the pullback.
Key Facts
- VN-Index fell 32.53 points (-1.83%) in the last week of October to close at 1,741.62, with four down sessions and one up session on HoSE.
- Average HoSE trading volume reached more than 645 million shares per session, down 9.38% week-on-week.
- HNX-Index closed at 252.74, down 3.79 points (-1.48%), with average liquidity of nearly 42.7 million units per session, a 29.9% decline.
- Circular 145/2026/TT-BTC was issued by the Ministry of Finance on 30 September 2026 and takes effect on 16 November 2026, replacing Circular 119/2020/TT-BTC.
- Under the new rules, securities lending is conducted by agreement or order matching, with collateral of at least 110% of the loan value in cash or eligible securities.
- The Vietnam Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation (VSDC) is responsible for organising and operating the securities lending activity.
- TCB closed at 21,600 on 31 October 2026; CTG at 30,300, VPB at 22,950 and HDB at 22,400.
What Happened
The market closed October on a weak note. HoSE recorded four declining sessions and one gain during the week, with selling pressure building as demand thinned. Liquidity fell on both bourses, which the article reads as evidence that cash is no longer rotating broadly but concentrating in a narrow set of stocks with specific catalysts or solid fundamentals. Foreign investors had not yet ended their net-selling trend.
Brokerage views diverge on the near term. CSI expects the VN-Index to fill the upward gap around 1,740 points and advises only exploratory buying if the index tests the 1,738-1,740 support zone. Tien Phong Securities (TPS) argues the short-term uptrend is intact and the current pullback may be a re-accumulation phase before the market has enough momentum to clear resistance. Separately, the Ministry of Finance’s Circular 145/2026/TT-BTC, effective 16 November, sets out securities lending and borrowing mechanics, including the 110% minimum collateral requirement and the role of VSDC as operator. At the Vietnam Capital Market Forum on 30 October, Vu Thi Chan Phuong, Chairwoman of the State Securities Commission, commented on the FTSE Russell upgrade of Vietnam’s market.
Market Context
TCB trades on HOSE at 21,600 as of 31 October, alongside HDB at 22,400, VPB at 22,950 and CTG at 30,300. The banking group has been the index’s heaviest weight through 2026 and is again positioned as the defensive core as breadth narrows. The 1.83% weekly decline and the 9.38% drop in HoSE volume point to a market where index-level moves are increasingly driven by a handful of large caps rather than broad participation, a pattern that tends to amplify the influence of bank stocks on the VN-Index.
Strategic Significance
The strategic read for long-term holders is twofold. First, the securities lending framework under Circular 145 formalises a mechanism that can improve price discovery and support hedging and market-making activity, a structural step that matters for the FTSE Russell upgrade narrative and for foreign institutional participation. Second, the concentration of flow into banks reflects a preference for balance-sheet quality and dividend visibility over cyclical beta while the index consolidates. For TCB specifically, being named among the November watchlist names reinforces its role as a liquidity anchor, but it also means the stock carries index-level sentiment risk if foreign selling persists.
What to Watch
- VN-Index behaviour around the 1,738-1,740 support zone flagged by CSI, and whether the gap is filled.
- Foreign net buying/selling data on HoSE through November for confirmation of the flow trend.
- Implementation guidance from VSDC on securities lending procedures ahead of the 16 November effective date.
- Third-quarter earnings disclosures and any November credit-growth commentary from TCB, CTG, VPB, HDB and TPB.
- Follow-through on the FTSE Russell upgrade process and related SSC statements.