Vietnam Bank Stocks Diverge: STB Up 32%, EIB Down 21% Despite 24.5% Profit Growth

Overview

Vietnamese bank stocks have diverged sharply year-to-date, with Sacombank (STB) up roughly 32% while Eximbank (EIB) has fallen about 21%, according to a market review of 2026 price performance. The split comes even as listed banks’ Q2/2026 pre-tax profit rose 24.5% year-on-year, a figure that trailed sectors such as oil and gas, real estate and retail. Mirae Asset attributes the weak relative performance of bank shares to stock-specific drivers and a reversal in rate-cut expectations that pressures net interest margin (NIM).

Key Facts

• STB (HOSE) gained approximately 32% year-to-date, the strongest performer in the bank group.
• ACB rose about 5% and VCB about 1% over the same period.
• EIB posted the steepest decline at roughly 21%, followed by VIB at about 16% and CTG and TPB at about 14% each.
• MBB fell about 3%, VPB about 4%, BID about 7%, and HDB and TCB about 8% each.
• Listed banks’ Q2/2026 pre-tax profit rose 24.5% YoY, and 19.6% for H1/2026.
• Q2/2026 profit growth in oil and gas (+246.7%), real estate (+172.3%) and retail (+109.2%) far outpaced banking.
• Mirae Asset assigns a 58-68% probability to a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with a possible further hike in December.

What Happened

The price review, covering the period from the start of 2026, shows a bank sector without a common trend. STB stands far above the rest of the group, while ACB and VCB remain modestly above their starting levels. Most other banks, including several large-cap names, are trading below where they began the year, with declines ranging from about 3% to 21%. The divergence appears even among banks with similar business characteristics, indicating that 2026 price action has been driven by individual stock factors rather than a uniform sector trend.

Mirae Asset, cited in the review, argues that the bank group’s relatively muted performance versus the broader market is not solely due to lower profit growth. The analyst notes that the market index has been led by a handful of large-cap stocks and a few names with their own specific narratives. On rates, Mirae Asset states that earlier expectations of Fed cuts have reversed as inflation risk returns and the US labour market remains solid, making a decline in domestic interest rates unlikely from current levels. Private banks have recently attracted better capital inflows on higher growth potential, while state-owned banks’ role in shaping lending rates limits their ability to adjust margins, particularly given their relatively thin NIM.

Market Context

Recent price context shows STB (HOSE) closing at VND 76,000 on 15 September 2026, while ACB closed at VND 22 and VCB at VND 60 on 16 September 2026, and MBB at VND 20,000 on 15 September 2026. The wide spread between STB and the rest of the group reflects the stock-specific dispersion described in the review. At the sector level, banking’s 24.5% Q2/2026 profit growth lagged oil and gas, real estate and retail, contributing to the group’s relative underperformance against a market index led by a few large caps.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the key issue is that sector-level profit growth is no longer sufficient to drive uniform bank stock performance. The divergence between STB and EIB suggests that balance-sheet structure, funding cost management and individual restructuring or growth stories now matter more than the sector aggregate. Mirae Asset’s point on NIM is central: if domestic rates stay elevated because Fed cut expectations have reversed, banks with thin margins and limited pricing power, particularly state-owned institutions, face pressure on profitability. Private banks with stronger growth potential may continue to attract capital, but the ability to sustain NIM will depend on funding cost control and balance-sheet optimisation rather than sector-wide tailwinds.

What to Watch

• Q3/2026 earnings releases from STB, ACB, VCB, MBB, VPB, BID, HDB, TCB, CTG, TPB, VIB and EIB, with NIM disclosed separately.
• The Fed’s September meeting outcome and the 25bp hike probability currently priced at 58-68%.
• State Bank of Vietnam policy signals on domestic interest rates and liquidity.
• Foreign-ownership and block-trade filings for STB and other diverging names.
• Monthly deposit and lending rate data confirming whether domestic funding costs remain sticky.