STB sector sentiment Impact 4.0/10 Risk signal -4.0

Vietnam Banks' Bad Debt Hits 168.5 Trillion VND in Q1 2026; Sacombank Leads

This Aveluro analysis covers STB (Sài Gòn Thương Tín) in the Banking sector. The classified event type is sector sentiment, with negative sentiment and a deterministic market-impact score of 4.0/10. Aveluro classifies this story as a negative catalyst and risk signal for the affected stock. Source coverage came from CafeF - Tài chính ngân hàng, classified as a primary/top-tier source.

Event
Sector Sentiment
Sentiment
Negative
Time Horizon
Medium Term
Credibility
Primary source
Affected

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The Takeaway STB's Group 5 bad debt surged to 30.5 trillion VND in Q1 2026, the highest among 27 listed banks, as total system bad debt hit 168.5 trillion VND. The sharp increase from 10 trillion VND a year ago signals persistent asset quality pressure for STB, while other banks like CTG and VCB show divergent trends.

Overview

Total doubtful debt (Group 5) at 27 listed Vietnamese banks reached 168.5 trillion VND as of March 31, 2026, up 535 billion VND from end-2025. Sacombank (STB) became the first bank to exceed 30 trillion VND in Group 5 debt, while VietinBank (CTG) saw a sharp reduction. The data, compiled from Q1 2026 financial reports, highlights diverging asset quality trends across the banking sector.

Key Facts

  • Total Group 5 bad debt at 27 listed banks: 168,543 billion VND as of March 31, 2026, up 535 billion VND from end-2025.
  • Sacombank (STB) leads with 30,547 billion VND, up 641 billion VND from end-2025, and the first bank to cross 30,000 billion VND.
  • STB’s Group 5 debt surged from ~10,000 billion VND in Q1 2025 to over 30,000 billion VND by Q4 2025.
  • BIDV (BID) ranks second with 27,540 billion VND, up 1,715 billion VND from end-2025 but down 395 billion VND year-on-year.
  • VietinBank (CTG) reduced Group 5 debt by nearly 8,000 billion VND in Q1 2026 to 11,913 billion VND.
  • VPBank (VPB) saw Group 5 debt reach 10,931 billion VND, up 19% from end-2025 and more than double two years ago.
  • HDBank (HDB) recorded a 57% increase in Group 5 debt in Q1 2026, rising by 2,186 billion VND to nearly 6,000 billion VND.

What Happened

According to financial reports from 27 listed banks, total Group 5 (doubtful) debt reached 168.5 trillion VND as of March 31, 2026, a modest increase of 535 billion VND from the end of 2025. Sacombank (STB) emerged as the bank with the highest absolute amount, at 30.5 trillion VND, marking the first time a Vietnamese bank has exceeded 30 trillion VND in this category. STB’s Group 5 debt has risen sharply over the past year, from approximately 10 trillion VND in Q1 2025 to nearly 30 trillion VND by Q4 2025.

In contrast, VietinBank (CTG) reported a significant decline, with Group 5 debt falling from nearly 20 trillion VND at end-2025 to 11.9 trillion VND in Q1 2026. BIDV (BID) saw an increase from end-2025 but a year-on-year decrease. VPBank (VPB) continued its upward trend, while Vietcombank (VCB) reduced its Group 5 debt from a peak of 12.3 trillion VND in Q3 2025 to 8.3 trillion VND. HDBank (HDB) recorded a sharp 57% increase in Q1 2026 alone.

Market Context

STB shares closed at 64,000 VND on April 15, 2026, down 2.57% on the day with volume of 6.6 million shares, reflecting investor concern over rising bad debt. The broader banking sector showed mixed price action: BID closed flat at 40,000 VND, CTG at 35,000 VND, and VPB at 27,000 VND. The divergence in bad debt trends among banks is likely to drive stock-specific performance, with asset quality becoming a key differentiator for investors.

Strategic Significance

The sharp increase in STB’s Group 5 debt, from 10 trillion VND to over 30 trillion VND in one year, raises questions about the bank’s credit risk management and the quality of its loan book, particularly given its large exposure to real estate and retail lending. For the sector, the overall stability of total bad debt at 168.5 trillion VND suggests that while some banks are cleaning up, others are still accumulating risk. The divergent trends—CTG reducing sharply, HDB increasing rapidly—highlight the importance of bank-specific credit policies and asset recovery capabilities. Investors should monitor whether STB’s bad debt is a temporary spike due to reclassification or a structural deterioration.

What to Watch

  • STB’s Q2 2026 financial report for further movement in Group 5 debt and any disclosure on specific large exposures.
  • SBV’s regulatory response, including potential tightening of loan classification rules or provisioning requirements.
  • CTG’s ability to sustain its sharp reduction in bad debt and whether it reflects actual recoveries or write-offs.
  • HDB’s explanation for the 57% quarterly increase and its impact on provisioning costs.
  • Sector-wide NPL ratio trends and the impact of interest rate policy on borrower repayment capacity.

Information provided for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data sourced from public Vietnamese market feeds.

Last updated: 2026-05-10T00:45:48.281360+00:00.

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