SBV Raises USD/VND Central Rate to 25,293, Nearing Record High

Overview

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) raised the central USD/VND rate by 10 dong to 25,293 on July 28, 2026, approaching the all-time high of 25,298 set in August 2025. The move is a proactive defense against a strengthening US dollar, with the DXY index up 3% year-to-date. Analysts at VNDirect and SSI Research expect the exchange rate to remain within a 1-2% fluctuation range this year, citing stable FDI inflows and high VND interest rates.

Key Facts

• SBV raised the central USD/VND rate by 10 dong to 25,293 on July 28, 2026.
• The new rate is just 5 dong below the record high of 25,298 set in August 2025.
• The DXY index has risen 3% since the start of 2026, while the central rate has only increased about 0.7%.
• Commercial banks are allowed to trade USD within a +/-5% band around the central rate, implying a range of 24,028-26,557.
• Vietcombank quoted USD at 26,140 bid and 26,520 ask, up 10 dong from the previous session.
• VNDirect forecasts the USD/VND rate to fluctuate within 1-2% in 2026.
• SSI Research expects FX pressure to remain under control in H2 2026, barring major external shocks.

What Happened

The State Bank of Vietnam raised its daily central USD/VND reference rate by 10 dong to 25,293 on July 28, 2026, according to the central bank’s morning announcement. The adjustment brings the rate within 5 dong of the record high of 25,298 set in late August 2025. The SBV calculates the central rate based on interbank market movements, a basket of currencies from major trading partners, macroeconomic balances, and policy objectives.

Analysts view the continuous upward adjustments as a proactive defense against a resurgent US dollar. The DXY index has climbed 3% year-to-date, while the central rate has only risen about 0.7%, suggesting the SBV is allowing a controlled depreciation. Commercial banks quickly followed, with Vietcombank, Vietinbank, BIDV, and Eximbank raising their USD quotes by 5-15 dong. The free market rate remained relatively stable at around 26,400-26,450.

Market Context

SSI Securities Corporation (HOSE: SSI), Vietnam’s largest brokerage by market share, closed at VND 23,000 on July 27, 2026, up 1.32% on volume of 1.7 million shares. The securities sector is sensitive to exchange rate movements as it affects foreign capital flows and trading activity. A stable or mildly depreciating VND is generally supportive for the stock market, as it encourages foreign portfolio investment. The SBV’s measured approach to rate adjustments has so far prevented panic, and analysts expect the central bank to continue using open market operations, FX intervention, and swap tools to manage volatility.

Strategic Significance

For SSI and other securities firms, the controlled depreciation of the VND reduces the risk of sudden capital outflows that could disrupt equity markets. The SBV’s proactive stance signals a commitment to stability, which bolsters investor confidence. The 1-2% forecast range implies a predictable environment for FX hedging and foreign investment planning. However, if the USD strengthens further or external shocks emerge, the SBV may need to tighten monetary conditions, potentially raising funding costs for margin lending and reducing trading volumes. SSI’s diversified revenue base, including brokerage, investment banking, and asset management, provides some buffer against such scenarios.

What to Watch

• Weekly SBV central rate adjustments and any shift in the pace of depreciation.
• DXY index movements and Federal Reserve policy signals.
• FDI disbursement data for Q3 2026, a key source of USD supply.
• SSI’s Q2 2026 earnings report, due in August, for commentary on FX impact.
• Any SBV intervention in the interbank market or changes to OMO rates.