Morgan Stanley: USD 2.5B Vietnam Inflow Is Just the Start, SSI Seminar Hears

Overview

At a seminar hosted by Saigon Securities Inc. (SSI) on 18 September 2026, Morgan Stanley said the roughly USD 2.5 billion expected to flow into Vietnam’s equity market after the FTSE upgrade is only the starting point, with active fund participation potentially pushing the figure to USD 3 billion or more. The remarks, made at an event titled “Viet Nam Becoming,” frame the upgrade as the opening phase of a longer foreign-capital cycle for HOSE-listed securities firms such as SSI.

Key Facts

• Morgan Stanley cited approximately USD 2.5 billion in expected post-upgrade inflows into Vietnam’s stock market.
• The bank said active funds could lift the total to around USD 3 billion or higher, calling an earlier USD 2.3 billion estimate conservative.
• Pankaj Mataney, Asia Head of Platform Sales and Index Strategy at Morgan Stanley, spoke at the SSI-hosted event on 18 September 2026.
• Mataney noted Vietnam’s market liquidity reached roughly USD 2 billion per session in Q3 2025, among the highest in ASEAN.
• Phil Chevalier, Co-Head of Asia-Pacific Execution Services at Virtu Financial, also spoke, describing liquidity as a “magnet” for international investors.
• The seminar was organized by SSI alongside participants from ASIFMA/GFMA and Virtu Financial.
• SSI shares closed at VND 21,400 on 18 September 2026.

What Happened

At the “Viet Nam Becoming” seminar organized by Saigon Securities Inc. (SSI), representatives from Morgan Stanley, ASIFMA/GFMA and Virtu Financial discussed Vietnam’s market-upgrade journey, infrastructure changes and the outlook for international capital. Pankaj Mataney, Morgan Stanley’s Asia Head of Platform Sales and Index Strategy, said Vietnam’s upgrade is only the beginning and that the roughly USD 2.5 billion expected to be allocated to the market is a notable figure, but actual flows could be larger as active funds increase participation.

“We all love Vietnam, believe in Vietnam, and this is only the beginning. The USD 2.5 billion will be poured into Vietnam’s market, but when active funds participate, the amount could rise further,” Mataney said, according to the article. He added that a prior forecast of about USD 2.3 billion in upgrade-related flows may prove conservative, with the actual figure potentially reaching around USD 3 billion or more. Phil Chevalier of Virtu Financial said his firm has been involved in improving Vietnam’s market connectivity, particularly in trading technology and infrastructure, and that recent rollout of the global brokerage model has produced positive results, though further connectivity expansion is still needed.

Market Context

SSI trades on the HOSE exchange and closed at VND 21,400 on 18 September 2026, the same day as the seminar. As a leading brokerage, SSI is directly geared to market liquidity and foreign participation, making it a bellwether for the securities sector. The article cites Q3 2025 average daily liquidity of about USD 2 billion, among ASEAN’s highest, as a key draw for international investors competing for allocations across Asian markets.

Strategic Significance

For long-term investors, the Morgan Stanley commentary reframes the FTSE upgrade as a catalyst with a second, larger phase: passive index flows are the visible component, but active fund mandates could add meaningfully more if liquidity, data quality and market-safety metrics continue to improve. That matters for SSI because brokerage revenue, margin lending and institutional services scale with turnover and foreign participation. The competitive angle is regional: Vietnam is competing with other Asian markets for the same active mandates, so execution infrastructure and market-access reforms become the differentiators that determine whether the USD 2.5 billion base case converges toward the USD 3 billion-plus scenario.

What to Watch

• Monthly foreign net buying/selling data on HOSE for confirmation of post-upgrade flow acceleration.
• FTSE index inclusion timelines and any updates on the share of the market covered by the upgrade.
• SSI’s Q3 2026 earnings release, particularly brokerage and margin-lending revenue trends.
• Further market-infrastructure announcements, including global brokerage model expansion and any new trading-safety or data-quality reforms.
• Commentary from active fund managers on Vietnam allocations versus other ASEAN markets.